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 Originally Posted by Beck
How do you know that villian does not have a set and raises on the flop? Ignoring the turn and the river? is it because he then checks on the turn? maybe he now has quads and is waiting for you to bet? I obviously would call on the river since it is only 18.8 to go.
Back to the main question how do you know he isn't holding 55?
I don't. If he has quads I'm just going to have to pay him off. To be up against quads is rare enough that I'm willing to do that in this spot.
The turn 5 is a bad card in that it gives A5 a boat, and a check on the turn is exactly how he might play it. I wonder if a check behind turn, call any river is a good way to play this hand. Trouble is that it gives AQ/AJ/AT, all of which are very possible hands, a free chance to hit a gutshot straight. Hence this thread.
When I decided to bet the turn I looked at his stack and tried to find a way to get all in against AQ and below. Maybe a slightly smaller bet, say 25$, would keep more of these hands in while still setting up a river push.
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