100NL - am I a nit to consider NOT shoving?

Villain here is Highpothead, a tight reg I've played plenty of hands with. The only hand I see here is TT, since AK is a snap 3bet pre and i dont know if he'd call pre with AQ and if he did i doubt he'd call two barrels. I know, OMG it's a set, but really...
Makes me think my turn bet was actually bad, I keep in more marginal hands with a turn check.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($161.20)
SB ($89.45)
BB ($80)
UTG ($22.30)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($91.05)
Hero (MP2) ($99.20)
MP3 ($95)
CO ($116.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8, 8
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP3 calls $4, CO calls $4, 1 fold, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($17) 10, A, 8 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, 1 fold, CO calls $12, 1 fold

Turn: ($41) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $28, CO calls $28

River: ($97) 7 (2 players)

like you're not a nit for thinking a shove doesn't get called by worse but you're a nit if you think his range for getting to the river is only TT

thats what i meant

Yes, especially against this Villain.

Fine :/

Just FYI I was saying to my friend, shit the only hand that makes sense here and will call is TT, but I have a set, I have to shove, I guess he could have AK or something, and I shoved, and ldo he had TT.

check call dude. Think about it.

would he call w/ ATs/A8s/8Ts/J9s preflop? I agree this looks a lot like TT a large % of the time, but you'd need super-soulread glasses to c/f.

you are shoving based on the strength of your own hand by the river and not looking at what your opponents likely range is

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

you are shoving based on the strength of your own hand by the river and not looking at what your opponents likely range is

yesss this. You are not a nit for considering not shoving if you have actually thought about his range and found that not shoving is best and you have come up with a better line. Provided you have detailed reads and you are very sure you're correct, not shoving just because OMFG full house could be correct.

this is not even close to being a decision worth thinking about

Originally Posted by badgers

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

you are shoving based on the strength of your own hand by the river and not looking at what your opponents likely range is

yesss this. You are not a nit for considering not shoving if you have actually thought about his range and found that not shoving is best and you have come up with a better line. Provided you have detailed reads and you are very sure you're correct, not shoving just because OMFG full house could be correct.

To follow on, i dont push because my opponent doesnt call a push. The strongest hand he has that we beat is AT and he'll puke fold the river if you push.
He could have a draw and river trips but thats v unlikely as to be a minute part of his range
That leaves value betting AK/AQ/AT type hands to death (if they even call a bet!) so i check river most likely or make a small bet that villain just cant fold to.
Otherwise i bet get shoved on a puke, folding at 1/2+ and calling here even though like you say i see TT/AA so much

this is retarded. if you cant shove here profitably vs an OKish player then you arent nearly aggressive enough.

of course this is a shove, are you kidding? so many hands pay off. If you lose its a cooler that you should erase from your mind and put no factor into your decision making. this isn't PLO

Originally Posted by nutsinho

this is retarded. if you cant shove here profitably vs an OKish player then you arent nearly aggressive enough.

Yah I did some study and realized that you're right about the aggression.

Also this guy isn't so great. IMO my read on him is really really correct with the exception that he will flat with AK often enough to make this a value shove.

But AK and TT are the only hands in his range by the river, I'm like 100% sure of this.

AQs/ATs/A8s/J9s are impossible? i dont completely doubt it, just being inquisitive, but yeah there are 3 combos of TT and 12 of AK so it doesnt matter.

I'm All-In.

lol at villain just calling 3 streets. if he is this passive with TT on this board then how in the world does he snap 3-bet AK preflop?

not passive martin, trappy

Originally Posted by nutsinho

this is retarded. if you cant shove here profitably vs an OKish player then you arent nearly aggressive enough.

No some people move up into games played for meaningful amounts of money having retardedly tight ranges.

Go with your gut man, if you think his range is that bad, check it and snap fold if he bets a lot of money. This hand is about reads and people, not cards. Oh, and blow him off pots every chance you get. If you play with him enough and he catches on then broaden your ranges back to sanity.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

if he is this passive with TT on this board then how in the world does he snap 3-bet AK preflop?

Because someone on the internets forums told him to.

I've had a lot of history with him, he is incredibly weak and nitty. AK is definitely in his call range pre-flop, and he can definitely play this passively post-flop with flopped two-pairs, sets and a turned straight... so shove imo.