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100NL, AQS TPTK +nuts flush draw facing a turn shove

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  1. #1

    Default 100NL, AQS TPTK +nuts flush draw facing a turn shove

    villain had donkish stats and limped in a lot. Is life this tough?
    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com



    SB ($72.05)
    BB ($100)
    UTG ($96.50)
    MP1 ($164.05)
    Hero (MP2) ($98.50)
    CO ($100)
    Button ($110.30)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, Q
    UTG calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 4 folds, UTG calls $4

    Flop: ($11.50) 5, 9, 2 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8

    Turn: ($27.50) A (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $17, UTG raises to $83.50 (All-In), Hero ?
  2. #2
    villain is also stationy.
  3. #3
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,423
    Location
    house
    $39 to win $128
    31% equity to make a call slightly +ev

    Board: 5c 9d 2d As
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 27.281% 27.31% 00.00% 62655 0.00 { AdQd }
    Hand 1: 72.718% 72.81% 00.00% 167041 0.00 { 99, 55, 22, A9s, 95s, A9o, 95o }

    Thats all in his range that beats you. If hes ever got like a combo draw its probably a call. It's close. That being said hes a station give that read I'd probably make a very tight fold.
  4. #4
    I'd call $50 for sure. Maybe $60. Fuck it, he sucks, I have a hand, let's give him action.
  5. #5
    Keilah's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    660
    Location
    Northern BC, Canada
    I put him on AK, 2pair, or a set and see I don't have enough equity.

    Stationy donks almost always play draws passive and shove "the nuts" like this.
  6. #6
    Guest
    you don't have TPTK
  7. #7
    im calling if he's a donk, could be any A he floated with

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