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100NL: flop nut FD + overcards - fold to aggression?

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  1. #1
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Default 100NL: flop nut FD + overcards - fold to aggression?

    EverestPoker Game #2648101895: Table Moroni-4 -
    $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 00:16:03 - 2008/01/13
    Seat 1: opium1102 ($187.85)
    Seat 2: Hero ($230.45)
    Seat 3: villain ($137.00)
    Seat 4: Peske ($71.60)
    Seat 5: ibox777 ($30.50)
    Seat 6: fritz2002 ($36.10)
    Seat 7: Borika27 ($81.50)
    Seat 8: mihaly15 ($141.10)
    Seat 9: nelis777 ($89.70)
    Seat 10: witwater ($115.91)
    opium1102 posts the small blind of $0.50
    dutchn00b posts the big blind of $1.00
    The button is in seat #10
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Hero[A Q]
    villain raises to $4.00
    Peske folds
    ibox777 folds
    fritz2002 folds
    Borika27 folds
    mihaly15 folds
    nelis777 folds
    witwater folds
    opium1102 calls $3.50
    Hero calls $3.00
    *** FLOP *** [8 2 7] (pot: $12)
    opium1102 checks
    Hero checks
    villain bets $8.00
    opium1102 folds
    Hero raises to $19.50
    villain raises to $68.00
    Hero ???

    I played around 1000 hands against villain, so we know a bit how each others plays. I seem like straight forward aggressive player (maybe villain hasn't notice that though). If villain has stats on me it would be something like 18/8/3.
    Villain seem to be 15/10/4 and lately seemed to C-bet almost every flop.
    I think the only question here is whether to push or fold?
    Call PF OOP is meh.
    Can we put villain only or 77/88/87/AA/KK/QQ/JJ (maybe 22), maybe also T9s.
    what do you do here?
  2. #2
    All you can eat baby.
  3. #3
    LOL, ya just stack off. 9-15 outs with $25ish invested. Good luck.
    It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
    Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
  4. #4
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Easy spot to stack off.
  5. #5
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Thanks for the reply!

    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Easy spot to stack off.
    This is what I thought.
    Basically here if we put a very tight range to villain to QQ+, 87s, 88 77 we have 35% equity. If we add JJ then it's near 39%.
    The put being of $52 + $48 (villain's re-raise) = $100.
    villain would have $65 more and so we would be putting $113 to win a possible $170, which is about 1-1.5 = 40%.
    Therefore, I think it's a call as we should take in consideration that villain can bluff.
    Is this thinking wrong?
  6. #6
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmy44
    Thanks for the reply!

    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    Easy spot to stack off.
    This is what I thought.
    Basically here if we put a very tight range to villain to QQ+, 87s, 88 77 we have 35% equity. If we add JJ then it's near 39%.
    The put being of $52 + $48 (villain's re-raise) = $100.
    villain would have $65 more and so we would be putting $113 to win a possible $170, which is about 1-1.5 = 40%.
    Therefore, I think it's a call as we should take in consideration that villain can bluff.
    Is this thinking wrong?
    If you call and miss the turn then your hand loses a lot of value. Just get it in here.

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