hmmm I guess the natural 6-max tendancy is to overestimate the number of hands someone can be holding solely based on preflop

if I were playing the hand (oh no not projection!) and I thought villain was competent, if somewhat tight and uncreative, I'd assume his range to be all pairs up to queens (we're repping lots of strength, right!) and SC's getting a pretty decent price, especially since the limper will almost always call and we ll be in position for a 3-way pot with likely huge implied odds.

based on that assumption, I'd ascribe villain a calling range on this uber dry flop of something like T9s, JTs, JJ, QQ as well as the sets.

if we have any read at all that villain is capable of peeling without a top pair hand just to see if we shut down with AK, we can also include hands like 67, 89, 99 and - depending on just how optimistic we want to be - 77 and 55.

So against that range I don't really see how anything but bet-folding is best. Almost everything that doesn't beat us is calling the turn for a pretty big bet with around 20% equity. Where it becomes shitty is if we know that we're getting bluffraised by hands like 77, 99, T9 and 89 that picked up extra outs. In that case a cr is prob better or c/c and c/c most rivers.

maybe the perception that even tight villains have mid SC's is way off though for full ring I dunno