100NL, what else can i do with 99 ?

villian is a regular running 17/14/5.1. His 3 bet% is 3%. Do you think that my 99 is good enough to stand the heat given that villian DB on this drawy board?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($107.60)
SB ($121.95)
BB ($127.15)
UTG ($160.45)
UTG+1 ($98.50)
MP1 ($121.80)
MP2 ($124.35)
CO ($106.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
5 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, BB raises $10, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($22.50) 5, 2, 7 (2 players)
BB bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($50.50) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $23, Hero shove, fold or call ?

I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts

but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)

Originally Posted by iopq

I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts

but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)

Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts

but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)

Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY

There are definitely guys who only 3b KK, AA in any other spot, but will defend their blinds. I'd look at the vs-steal 3b if you got enough hands.
I def. fold oop, I might fold if he 3b from the sb, but I think you can call here.

As played... yeah... shove fold or call. :P
I have no idea.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts

but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)

Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY

No, I don't. If he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.

This guy was very active and raised a lot at other tables.So I really think that he is capable of 3betting and double barrelling as well with a wide range given his small bet sizing on the turn.

I'm going to say that you shouldn't call

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts

but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)

Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY

No, I don't. If he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.

so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1

Fold preflop

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts

but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)

Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY

No, I don't. If he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.

so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1

r u kidding

He's saying vs a BTN open he might 3bet 7%, but vs a UTG open he might 0% resulting in 3% 3bet overall in this position...

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

No, I don't. IF he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.

so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1

See that.

He's saying vs a BTN open he might 3bet 7%, but vs a UTG open he might 0% resulting in 3% 3bet overall in this position...

This is pretty much what I was saying...

Originally Posted by jessyj

3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

No, I don't. IF he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.

so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1

See that.

He's saying vs a BTN open he might 3bet 7%, but vs a UTG open he might 0% resulting in 3% 3bet overall in this position...

This is pretty much what I was saying...

Originally Posted by jessyj

3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

Yeah and since this is a oop 3b this becomes <3% 3b. Fold pre

Jesus christ, he had AxTh

Originally Posted by Alexos

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts

but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)

Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY

No, I don't. If he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.

so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1

r u kidding

no im obv super duper serial
but anyway I think playing 99 here is going to be about as difficult as playing AQo

well it's not like we have any equity at all, it's just going to be really tough and we might have to minraise+1 some flops for protection against getting barreled and folding to a flop 3b or some crazy lines like that

we stack him 1/20 of the time or something when we flop a set
we get stacked the remaining 1/100 of the time
so we gain a stack 3% of the time (flop set and get it in 5% of the time, lose to suck out or higher set 1% of the time) so that's a 3bb profit from set minan
we need to get a 4bb profit from making him fold AK/bluff or show it down without beating us

it's possible because we're IP, but difficult

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Originally Posted by jessyj

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by jessyj

No, I don't. IF he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.

so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1

See that.

He's saying vs a BTN open he might 3bet 7%, but vs a UTG open he might 0% resulting in 3% 3bet overall in this position...

This is pretty much what I was saying...

Originally Posted by jessyj

3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.

Yeah and since this is a oop 3b this becomes <3% 3b. Fold pre

if his range is QQ+,AK.. its a call preflop

and ur statement is wrong, why would u assume his 3betting of a BTN open would be narrower than an UTG open when its obv wider even if he's oop

folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Yeah and since this is a oop 3b this becomes <3% 3b.

Not necessarily.

I need to stop posting when im drunk, I missread and i agree with the prev statement that his 3b% here is wider than his 3b% vs a utg villain.

What i was trying to say is that his btn (ip) 3bet is alot wider which increases his 3b%, where his 3b% vs a utg is thin. Since his ip 3b% is wider this would lower his oop 3b% based on the equation that his total 3b% is 3%, But in this spot still wider than 3%.

For me, this is a call if your player is straight forward postflop. You can win by having the best hand and almost all turncards come to your advantage since you can rep alot of hands. However if this is a tricky opponent all turncards come in his advantage and i'd rather fold this preflop since we have to give him some credit because of his low 3b%.

Originally Posted by pokerfan

folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.

But will they exploit it?

Originally Posted by Seabass

Originally Posted by pokerfan

folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.

But will they exploit it?

So is folding QQ/Ak to a btn 3b when your playing from utg. But it's still the correct play most of the situations in today's games.

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Originally Posted by Seabass

Originally Posted by pokerfan

folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.

But will they exploit it?

So is folding QQ/Ak to a btn 3b when your playing from utg. But it's still the correct play most of the situations in today's games.

I actually exploit this in 6m where I'll 3b UTG players maybe 20% of the time light

people do fold a lot because they never suspect you're doing it light if you do it a normal-looking % of the time

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

Originally Posted by Seabass

Originally Posted by pokerfan

folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.

But will they exploit it?

So is folding QQ/Ak to a btn 3b when your playing from utg. But it's still the correct play most of the situations in today's games.

I actually exploit this in 6m where I'll 3b UTG players maybe 20% of the time light

people do fold a lot because they never suspect you're doing it light if you do it a normal-looking % of the time

I do too =) But most players don't and since im aware of it i think i notice pretty fast if one keeps 3b my utg pretty light ! But until ido my std is just to fold