2/5 flopped set OOP vs preflop limp rr

hero $1400
villian (presumed donk) $350

4 limpers
hero makes it $22 from BB with
UTG calls
villian reraises to $62
hero calls
UTG folds

flop comes

hero checks
villian bets $70 into $140 pot.
hero shoves.

bad call preflop

Originally Posted by nutsinho

bad call preflop

I know sort of but with all the dead money am I not almost getting odds to call?

Option 1: fold
EV=0

Option 2: call
assume: you cannot ever profitably continue postflop without a set
the following is not precise but it should be close
EV= (88.2(-40) + 10.6(399) + 1.2( -328))/100
EV= (-3528+ 4229.4 -393.6)/100
EV= 307.8/100
EV= $3.08 assuming all the money goes in every time you flop a set

under this assumption then i guess its a good call but in practice he may not stack off every time you outflop him

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Option 1: fold
EV=0

Option 2: call
assume: you cannot ever profitably continue postflop without a set
the following is not precise but it should be close
EV= (88.2(-40) + 10.6(399) + 1.2( -328))/100
EV= (-3528+ 4229.4 -393.6)/100
EV= 307.8/100
EV= $3.08 assuming all the money goes in every time you flop a set

under this assumption then i guess its a good call but in practice he may not stack off every time you outflop him

I think unless villian has KK and an A comes on the flop hes felting this every time. You can pretty much solely put him on KK/AA with the preflop action right?

yeah stuff like KK on A-high flop hurts, also it takes a particularly daft opponent to actively try to get it all in with AA when the flop is like KK2. Also, a LRR with AK is a possibility and that hurts for obvious reasons as well (youll probably win a large cbet but he wont stick it all in that often). Lastly, I don't know the exact percentages but I may have been a TAD generous in the flopped set condition winning and losing percentages (it may be like 10.5/1.3 instead of 10.6/1.2). All in all I think we have a slightly losing play here, but obviously its not at all a big mistake.