200NL: AK poop turn

Villain 13/7/2 over 300

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($213.40)
UTG ($209.25)
Hero ($200)
MP1 ($93.15)
MP2 ($332.20)
CO ($200)
Button ($401.05)
SB ($42)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K.
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 3 folds, Button calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) T, K, A (2 players)
Hero bets $16, Button calls $16.

Turn: ($51) J (2 players)
Hero has no plan

Check and see what he does? Not a hard decision for now

check/fold

Originally Posted by Fnord

check/fold

Do his stats scream just scream 'honest'?

just check and see what he does, worse 2 pairs are alot of his range so i dont mind calling one moderate turn bet but folding to a river bet as thatll signify hes got kq, aq.

Originally Posted by d0zer

Originally Posted by Fnord

check/fold

Do his stats scream just scream 'honest'?

yes

You raised pre-flop from EP, he flat called on the button, then flat called on this flop. His range is very, very well defined.

Sure, checking out will sometimes fold the best hand, but it's just something you got to find peace with when you're OOP with lots of money behind.

he should check down some worse hands

this spot is only hard when youre running bad because his range should be mega polarized. what i mean is that he should pretty much never bet the turn without the nuts, and when he does without the nuts it turns his hand into a bluff.

i guess i'm the only one that donk leads for $15.

it's the best way to get the max out of weaker hands.

+ if villain were to make a move on the turn, this move is less likely now that we have bet on the scary turn. if we get raised on our bet, it's likely we are beat... but at least this way we can find out for cheaper... than calling a $30 bet on the turn.