200NL - bottom set on monotone flop 3way

No reads at all, this is my first orbit at this table.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
10 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($278.70)
UTG 1 ($45.85)
MP1 ($252.53)
MP2 ($203.50)
LP1 ($114.65)
Hero ($215.85)
CO ($124.52)
BTN ($195.00)
SB ($94.00)
BB ($169.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 10 players) Hero is LP2
2 folds, MP1 raises to $8 ($244.53), MP2 calls $8 ($195.50), 1 fold, Hero calls $8 ($207.85), 4 folds

Flop: ($27, 3 players)
MP1 checks ($244.53), MP2 checks ($195.50), Hero bets $23 ($184.85), MP1 calls $23 ($221.53), MP2 goes all-in $195.5 ($0.00)

pretty sick board. mp1 looks like he has AK/AQ/etc. with the As (he may have even flopped the A-hi flush). i don't know what to make of mp2's super check-raise. i don't really know what combo draw he could have, and i normally wouldn't expect a flopped flush to do this. i really am kinda lost here. tough hand.

Tough spot...only hand that does that is a big overpair with the flush draw or a weak made flush trying to protect his hand. A set would likely raise you big, but not insta-allin. I cry and call.

*gack*

count your outs and ask your balls if they feel like gambling

more than likely he had made flush already but i'd still call and hope for the best given 100BB deep.

I could fold here with a read.

Yuk. I'm way more worried about an overset than a flopped flush but against unknown players I guess you have to call. I don't play 200nl tho.

i wouldn't blame you for folding here

The paranoid range for him:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.325% 27.28% 01.05% 8372 321.00 { 3d3h }
Hand 1: 71.675% 70.63% 01.05% 21676 321.00 { 66-55, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 74s, 6s5s, 5s4s }

its a definite call, but we aren't ecstatic.

also its been mentioned but if you are prone to tilt or playing with an inadequate bankroll, then folding here is just fine, and probably best.

Sets aren't always the nuts, but you have to have a good reason...and this one with this board and this action is adding up to a bad story.

Something to think about though...do we expect MP1 to come along very much of the time? My first intuition was no.

Originally Posted by Setzy

Something to think about though...do we expect MP1 to come along very much of the time? My first intuition was no.

it seems to me that he either has the As and is drawing or already flopped the flush. it's hard to decide which though cuz he could easily have either.

A lower made flush or overset might do that. I've seen Ahi flush do this. I hate this position, I might just cry and fold.