200NL: FD + pair vs unknown

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($208.20)
UTG+1 ($167.60)
MP1 ($213.90)
MP2 ($158.00)
MP3 ($391.35)
CO ($292.75)
Hero ($277.05)
SB ($60.35)
BB ($51.25)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($7, 3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $5, Hero raises to $15, BB folds, MP1 raises to $40, Hero calls $25

Turn: ($87, 2 players)
MP1 bets $45, Hero ???

villain was unknown.
PF is meh! I don't know why I limped!
I don't believe that we have an enough good draw to 4bet/push flop. The turn bet looks weak (maybe the NutFD/57 or TP, a set is also possible). Should we push or raise (and call a shove)? I don't think we have implied odds to call (because villain might fold to a river bet if the flush hits).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

75,341,376 games 0.031 secs 2,430,366,967 games/sec

Board:
Dead: LOL WOOPSY

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.847% 48.26% 00.59% 36361068 440979.50 { Jh9h }
Hand 1: 51.153% 50.57% 00.59% 38098349 440979.50 { AcAh, 88, 66, AhKh, AJs, Ah3h, Ah2h, 75s, AJo, 75o }

All-in on flop ez game. You can't say that we aren't good enough to ship it in on the flop and then put 75 in his turn range.

As played I'm just going to call cos we only need to average like $90 when we hit and we're going to have the best hand when it's checked through sometimes.

EDIT lol spot the deliberate mistake.... This is more like it.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,660 games 0.015 secs 2,244,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 8h 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.233% 61.09% 00.14% 20563 48.00 { Jh9h }
Hand 1: 38.767% 38.62% 00.14% 13001 48.00 { AcAh, 88, 66, AhKh, AJs, Ah3h, Ah2h, 75s, AJo, 75o }

Also + FE, ship it in on the flop

I agree with calling behind (especially considering BB may stay in the hand) ... maybe even 3 or 4-betting/folding to his second barrel on the turn... pending. Is he aggressive?

WOW, I was so wrong!!
I just looked at Pokerstove again with some tight ranges for villain:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec

Board: 8h 6h Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.384% 45.24% 00.15% 14779 48.00 { Jh9h }
Hand 1: 54.616% 54.47% 00.15% 17795 48.00 { JJ+, 88, 66, AJs, AJo }

Yup, it should have been an easy game on the flop!

Raise preflop if we are playing.
How would you play 888/666 here? Whatever the answer id play this hand the same as well.

i just call down passively from flop on cuz its a small pot.

We have zero fold equity on flop so I'm definitely not 4 bet shoving. I like a call for the extra $25 on flop and peel off a turn card. I think calling and folding are about on par with each other on the turn and raising is by far the worst option.

Lets try to keep this pot as small as possible when we have TPGK.

Preflop and flop action as played is good, I play it the same way.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

We have zero fold equity on flop so I'm definitely not 4 bet shoving. I like a call for the extra $25 on flop and peel off a turn card. I think calling and folding are about on par with each other on the turn and raising is by far the worst option.

Lets try to keep this pot as small as possible when we have TPGK.

Preflop and flop action as played is good, I play it the same way.

Don't you think villain can do this with TPTK? or the nut FD?

Originally Posted by jimmy44

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

We have zero fold equity on flop so I'm definitely not 4 bet shoving. I like a call for the extra $25 on flop and peel off a turn card. I think calling and folding are about on par with each other on the turn and raising is by far the worst option.

Lets try to keep this pot as small as possible when we have TPGK.

Preflop and flop action as played is good, I play it the same way.

Don't you think villain can do this with TPTK? or the nut FD?

you have position on him and the pot is small, so you need to think twice about bloating the pot. Anyways, i like a passive line here instead.
nuts FD + pair = felt

Seriously if opp is a true unknown it's just a standard ship it in on flop imo. Unknowns do random shit, saying we hand no FE is wrong I think, we have some FE sometimes against certain opps so therefore we have FE.

ship ship ship the flop.

Even 10 hands would be enough to convince me otherwise though, I'm going on a complete unknown.

Most often though when we get our stacks in on this flop we're not going to have 14 outs, probably 9 at most and even less if he has set. Calling the flop and calling the turn here seem to be standard IMO. Calling/raising preflop to me depends on the player.