200NL, how to proceed with 99 oop ?

villain is 15.5/12.2/2.4 over 328 hands. How do i proceed from turn on? Do you guys think i could bluff him off his medium strength winning range (TT-QQ) on king over card or just check and see cheap showdown in case he also check down his losing range(A7s,44,55,88)? 99 is my biggest losing hand UTG out of 89k hands in my database

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($206.80)
MP1 ($245.15)
MP2 ($85.95)
MP3 ($375.60)
CO ($188.45)
Button ($242.50)
SB ($121.15)
BB ($205)
Hero ($208.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9.
Hero raises to $7, 5 folds, Button calls $7, 1 fold, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($22) 7, 6, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16, Button calls $16, BB folds.

Turn: ($54) K (2 players)
Hero ?

half pot bet on turn

Just bet/fold the turn and c/f the river if called.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Just bet/fold the turn and c/f the river if called.

this

After he called my turn bet, i really narrowed his range down to As6s,88, TT-QQ (more likely) cuz standard TA would raise their sets in the middle and not be silly to call with small pair plus gunshot. Thinking about this, i raised UTG and repped at least TP or straight even though its unlikely. So how likely is it that you guys could get off your medium strength hands like TT-QQ ? Is my river bet too big given risk/reward for the long run?

Turn: ($54) K (2 players)
Hero bets $25, Button calls $25.

River: ($104) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $65

ewwwwwwwww check call river bro

I don't really care for the postflop play much in this hand. I'm debating on the value of a cbet but, even if cbetting the flop is the +EV move I'm fairly certain betting this turn isn't.

Betting $25 into $55 is going to get us bluff-raised more than anything as we are actually what we are repping: really weak. It might get us called another barrel by 44-55, 88 but also TT+ too. I like c/c turn c/f river here.

As played, I think check/call is a real bad line on the river with 99.

You're beating pretty much just 88. Betting the turn turns your hand into a bluff against JJ/TT. If I bet this turn, I would bet at least $40.

why?? only two reasonable options on the river: c/f or b/f

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

ewwwwwwwww check call river bro

i agree that i should've bet much more on the turn if i want to turn 99 into bluff Asshole called my river 2/3 pot size bet with :Qc: :Qh: . pretty sad. The thing is that its surely difficult to play this out of position with marginal hands and i might be better off checking and slowing down.

Originally Posted by Fnord

You're beating pretty much just 88. Betting the turn turns your hand into a bluff against JJ/TT. If I bet this turn, I would bet at least $40.