200NL: Set on bad turn

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($297.50)
UTG ($211.75)
UTG+1 ($222.65)
MP1 ($147)
MP2 ($40)
Hero (CO) ($268.65)
Button ($45.33)
SB ($38)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
4 folds, Hero raises $8, 2 folds, BB calls $6

Flop: ($17) 9, Q, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB calls $14

Turn: ($45) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

villain was 12/6/2. No specific history/reads.
With his stats, I don't think he's calling a lot of 2nd barrils on this turn.
However, we have top set, so the question is what do we do if we bet $35 and villain raises? Do we expect that only a T would do that? The following Ts should be in his range: JTs/T9s/TT

i check it back.

is a 12/6 really defending with JTs/T9s?

Regardless, I check back also.

check it back

Thanks guys!

@badgers: You're right, I forgot to mention that villain was folding BB something around 70% (around 2k hands). With this I think indeed he could defend our CO raise with JTs/T9s.

Continuing on the hand:
River: ($45) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero $20, BB raises to $60, Hero ???

Now, we showed weakness on the turn, river comes as a good card (except if he slow played AA). We bet and villain check-raises.
Here we are getting 3-1 on the call. I really fell like he has AA here, but the issue is that we have underrepresented our hand a lot.
==> obvs fold? or crying call?

Well, your river bet looks like a weak steal, so he could just be capitalizing on that. I think you have to cry a lot and pay the man this time, and take good notes...

It's hard to believe that he'd check 3 times though. Maybe I'm not crying so much to call this actually.

Originally Posted by ChrisBCritter

Well, your river bet looks like a weak steal, so he could just be capitalizing on that. I think you have to cry a lot and pay the man this time, and take good notes...

It's hard to believe that he'd check 3 times though. Maybe I'm not crying so much to call this actually.

Villain could very easily have JT, QT, QJ, KT, AT, AJ, AQ, KQ, 88+ when he calls this flop. I think his river check/raise could be AQ but is probably more likely a set or a straight and is rarely ever a pure bluff.

Luckily for you you only lose to the straight so i don't see how you could ever fold this.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Villain could very easily have JT, QT, QJ, KT, AT, AJ, AQ, KQ, 88+ when he calls this flop. I think his river check/raise could be AQ but is probably more likely a set or a straight and is rarely ever a pure bluff.

Luckily for you you only lose to the straight so i don't see how you could ever fold this.

Calling the flop with any Tx hand I can see, but to not lead out on the turn OR river when he hits is losing quite a bit of value. Not having reads sucks, but I think a 12/6/2 is going to bet at least ONE of those streets with a T. The river Check-raise doesn't make sense for any Tx hand (with the LONE exeption of KT). The more I think of this, the more I can't fold the river. Though I know I've folded in the heat of the moment in spots like this.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Originally Posted by ChrisBCritter

Well, your river bet looks like a weak steal, so he could just be capitalizing on that. I think you have to cry a lot and pay the man this time, and take good notes...

It's hard to believe that he'd check 3 times though. Maybe I'm not crying so much to call this actually.

Villain could very easily have JT, QT, QJ, KT, AT, AJ, AQ, KQ, 88+ when he calls this flop. I think his river check/raise could be AQ but is probably more likely a set or a straight and is rarely ever a pure bluff.

Luckily for you you only lose to the straight so i don't see how you could ever fold this.

Yup, I agree that here villain is very rarely doing this as a bluff.
We have the 3rd nuts, but for a tight player this seemed to me a lot like straight/set of A. However, we are getting such good odds, that indeed a call is maybe mandatory.