200nl-shitty spot against decent reg

villain is nicorretegum, a solid reg running 18/12/4 over 600 hands. is the turn a checkraise all in or a fold? I can basicaly only beat a bluff here as jj-88 check behind. I also dont think hed float for 40 dollars on the flop.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($194.55)
Hero (BB) ($199)
UTG ($130)
UTG+1 ($137.60)
villain (MP1) ($208.15)
MP2 ($65.30)
CO ($174)
Button ($70.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
2 folds, villain raises to $7, 3 folds, SB calls $6, Hero raises to $25, villain calls $18, 1 fold

Flop: ($57) 3 3 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $40, villain calls $40

Turn: ($137) Q (3 players)
Hero checks, villain bets $90, Hero...

Total pot: $137 | Rake: $3

I don't think I'm folding here. You're line really looks like AKo or other stuff trying to squeeze.
I might go for a c/bomb TURN. If villain has AA then I was going to lose my stack anyway.

I don't think I'm good enough to fold here. Stack off to AA/sets all day long and cry.

checking the turn puts you in a horrible spot.

Do what you would do with bluffs in this spot (shove).

Originally Posted by daven

checking the turn puts you in a horrible spot.

WTF? Since when do TAggs like calling off all their money. The check is at worst a small mistake. Then again, this is fucking full ring. 6 max I felt this every time and see all sorts of shit from people with stats that suggest I shouldn't be seeing all sorts of shit.

Hey, if villain is a solid 200nl reg then history may matter. You guys tangled much before? Also, any idea what his fold-to-3-bet is?

Originally Posted by Deanglow

Do what you would do with bluffs in this spot (shove).

he's turning his hand into a bluff if he pushes here, isn't he? I'm trying to imagine villain's range once he bets the turn, and it doesn't look that pretty.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by daven

checking the turn puts you in a horrible spot.

WTF? Since when do TAggs like calling off all their money. The check is at worst a small mistake. Then again, this is fucking full ring. 6 max I felt this every time and see all sorts of shit from people with stats that suggest I shouldn't be seeing all sorts of shit.

The check costs us a 70bb pot. I think you have to fold as played.

Originally Posted by daven

The check costs us a 70bb pot. I think you have to fold as played.

It got him to put $90 into the pot with a FAR wider range than he's calling with here. I consider checking to induce to be a key weapon when fighting players like him.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by daven

The check costs us a 70bb pot. I think you have to fold as played.

It got him to put $90 into the pot with a FAR wider range than he's calling with here. I consider checking to induce to be a key weapon when fighting players like him.

I'm trying to figure out how narrow his range is once he calls the flop c-bet. Guess it's unchanged if he knows we 3-bet AK/JJ?

After a lot of thought something is starting to click, maybe his bet-when-checked-to range is wider than his calling-a-second-barrel range.
but is it wide enough to check-shove?

Some more reads would be nice here.

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by daven

The check costs us a 70bb pot. I think you have to fold as played.

It got him to put $90 into the pot with a FAR wider range than he's calling with here. I consider checking to induce to be a key weapon when fighting players like him.

I'm trying to figure out how narrow his range is once he calls the flop c-bet. Guess it's unchanged if he knows we 3-bet AK/JJ?

After a lot of thought something is starting to click, maybe his bet-when-checked-to range is wider than his calling-a-second-barrel range.
but is it wide enough to check-shove?

Some more reads would be nice here.

This is the key here! Do you think villain calls 2barril on TURN with AKo or TT? Nope, but we should allow him to try to float with it. If we 2barril we are not allowing villain to do a mistake!

A key concept here is that you should be aiming to win money, not win pots.

I love to set bear traps by betting/raising the cheap streets then pretend to give up when the money gets big and the commitment point hits. Quite often I will get stabbed at (my aggresion helps set this up) and after stabbing they're pretty much pot-stuck if they have any pot equity.

When mixed with cheap street aggression and mixed with value-bet lines it's winning mid-stakes poker.

Originally Posted by Fnord

A key concept here is that you should be aiming to win money, not win pots.

I love to set bear traps by betting/raising the cheap streets then pretend to give up when the money gets big and the commitment point hits. Quite often I will get stabbed at (my aggresion helps set this up) and after stabbing they're pretty much pot-stuck if they have any pot equity.

When mixed with cheap street aggression and mixed with value-bet lines it's winning mid-stakes poker.

Makes sense, and I think that my play by street mix is messy so far, yet another of the interminable list of things to work on...

still not sure about this particularly hand though

ok to help you guys with the decision heres a bit more info. No, we havnt tangled much at all, not in one large pot that i can remember. My image is clean, ive been playing a solid 15/11 game and my 3 bet % is low, though he can obviously still view my 3 bet as a squeeze as the sb who called was a donk. He folded to 3 bets when hed raised from ep 55% of the time, not sure if thats low or high, but still bare in mind my sample of him isnt huge. My original plan was to check and shove over a gay bet of 50 or sumthing but when he commits for his stack considering how solid he is it made me question if my hand was good.

I think I use the "folds to cbet%" stat here coupled with how high your c-bet% is to get some idea how light he floats the flop in position. He could easily have AK or TT, and think your turn check on the Q means you've got AK/TT-JJ & he can take the pot from you on the turn.

If he's totally straightforward postflop then I lean towards a fold, but is an 18/12/4 generally all that straightforward postflop? Do you have a read that he doesn't floats the flop for $40, or is that just a 'gut read' based on his pre stats?

Originally Posted by daven

checking the turn puts you in a horrible spot.

i hope you mean by this, that we cant decide which option for getting all the money in is best?

Dont fold this hand ever vs this opponent, my experience says hes calling as light as 77 pre.
As played i dont check bomb, i c/c and prob push river and see if we can outthink his JJ/TT type hand. If he has QQQ, lol_cooler
if he has you beat he has AA or QQ nothing else

Also, those people who dont know what type of hands THIS SPECIFIC opponent has (who is clearly a reg in this game) and play on ftp 200nl
1. pay attention, turn off your fucking HUD
2. You should study peoples game in your study time that you will play against a lot (hint, the 16 table tags/nits you have 6k hands on already)

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Also, those people who dont know what type of hands THIS SPECIFIC opponent has (who is clearly a reg in this game) and play on ftp 200nl
1. pay attention, turn off your fucking HUD
2. You should study peoples game in your study time that you will play against a lot (hint, the 16 table tags/nits you have 6k hands on already)

I've been thinking about this a bit recently - I asked for some thoughts, but maybe nobody reads the playing the player forum. Here is a post about profiling a weak reg after a lot of hands -any advice would be great!

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ts-t75167.html

this is the easiest c/c shove river ever, or c/c c/c

i think your mistake is thinking he's going to check back 99-JJ here

I really like how you played this hand if you c/call

I still like a shove on the turn to balance for the times we are bluffing with AK and vbetting with AA/KK/QQ/AQ

Originally Posted by Deanglow

I still like a shove on the turn to balance for the times we are bluffing with AK and vbetting with AA/KK/QQ/AQ

By a shove on the turn u mean a straight oop shove not a checkraise shove? as villains bet of 90 leaves us only 45 behind so obviously we have no fold equity if we ever were bluffing.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

i think your mistake is thinking he's going to check back 99-JJ here

I often check in this spot and never to hope or think that 99-JJ check behind. I check behind so that my hand looks like AK - which maximizes value out of the range you just mentioned.

This $90 bet is something I usually shove over, although with a good enough read I'm putting villain on exactly QQ.