200NL - Tough decision with an overpair

Villain is actually full_tilting, one of the accused "bots" on FTP. He is rather chatty today though so I dont know if he is in bot-mode... Anyway he still plays a very tight game and runs on 14/7/6. I think his "standard"-line with a set would be to lead out, but it's still hard to pick up much on the c/r since I haven't seen him doing it all day.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $316
UTG+1: $102.35
MP1: $173.10
MP2: $341.70
MP3: $241.75
Hero: $251.30
Button: $194
SB: $63.85
BB: $277.40

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with A A
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises to $13, 4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Flop: 7 9 6 ($33, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $24, MP2 raises to $55, Hero ???

This guy probably wouldn't call another $11 preflop OOP without a pocket pair and I think he raises TT+ preflop, so meh. He either has a set or he is just testing you. Seems terrible to just let him have it here though. Since we have position, maybe call the $30 and fold to a strong turn bet, but I hate doing that.

I guess you have to ask yourself how often he does this with QQ. c/r line smells more like overpair than set or straight to me. My reads are probably off though. I agree with your analysis that c/r just doesn't make sense as a set line (or maybe that's the whole point).

I think what we really need for situations like this is a combination stat from Poker Tracker comprised of % hands check-raised with WtSD% in those hands, and how many times he W$woSD (Won $ without showdown).

That was probably a very crappy way of saying "When he check-raises, how often does he go to showdown, when he does how often does he win, and how often are his opponents folding to his check-raise on earlier streets" This will at least give us an idea of his general strength when he does this. If you're perceived as relatively nitty but cbet frequently, it's entirely possible he's making this play with 88, figuring "I'll check, he'll cbet, I'll raise with my pair+OESD".

l/c preflop is a strange line as well, this could be 22-88 fairly easily, at 14% VP$IP I doubt he's limping from MP1 with T8, 85, 97, 96, or 67. 7% raise range means he probably has JJ in his raising range so I'm not putting him on QQ,JJ, or KK here. TT is a possibility, overpair and a gutshot.

With an TAF of 6, doesn't this become and easy push though?

Originally Posted by Jimmy Mac

This guy probably wouldn't call another $11 preflop OOP without a pocket pair and I think he raises TT+ preflop, so meh. He either has a set or he is just testing you. Seems terrible to just let him have it here though. Since we have position, maybe call the $30 and fold to a strong turn bet, but I hate doing that.

You can't play the flat call, turn fold line against a villian with a TAF of 6, can you? That's got to be -EV every time, because with that line you're not calling unless you hit an A on the turn.

Edit:
FWIW (which is probably not much) everyime someone's taken this line against me at 10NL I overpush and find myself way behind almost everytime. Like I said, this probably means absolutely nothing @ 200NL.

You can't play the flat call, turn fold line against a villian with a TAF of 6, can you? That's got to be -EV every time, because with that line you're not calling unless you hit an A on the turn

I don't know how else to play it other than just fold right here. Playing for stacks is suicide against this guy.

Also, remember aggression factor is (Bet + Raise) / Call. His high AF is just telling you he doesn't call very often. It doesn't tell you anything about how often he is just folding to our cbet.

I think you make some really good points here. If we try to narrow down his handrage 88 is a very likely hand, and I don't think we should rule out hands like 98s or 87s neither. He could have the set as well of course but considering that he would likely lead with it makes other types of hand more likely imo. Jimmy is right when he say's he'd probably raise TT preflop but I think he would freuently raise with nines, sevens and perhaps even sixes as well. Considering he has a pretty wide range and a very high TAF I don't like dropping this hand without a fight. Pushing the flop or perhaps call and push the turn?

Originally Posted by Jimmy Mac

You can't play the flat call, turn fold line against a villian with a TAF of 6, can you? That's got to be -EV every time, because with that line you're not calling unless you hit an A on the turn

I don't know how else to play it other than just fold right here. Playing for stacks is suicide against this guy.

Also, remember aggression factor is (Bet + Raise) / Call. His high AF is just telling you he doesn't call very often. It doesn't tell you anything about how often he is just folding to our cbet.

If that's the case, I would guess he's raising a lot of hands we beat. I would have to guess that folding now is a better option than calling, then folding, though. How often is a player that active going to check-raise you on the flop and not lead the turn knowing he's got control of the hand?

im thinking set more than likely. im pretty sure it wasnt one of the bots though... you said the guy was chatty and i never saw the bots checkraise. so if it was the guy playing he might do this with 1010 or 88... idk why he would do that with 1010 though considering he programmed his bots to raise it. so you are basically beat by everything but 88... tough fold to make but probably the right thing to do.

I think that's the general consensus here, folding is a better play than call/folding turn, which are both better plays than shoving with limited info.

I think we should note also that villian could be making this play with almost any two if he has a reasonable suspicion that we'll fold overpairs/overcards to a check-raise on a coordinated board, that also contains at least 2 cards that would've set him with hands he is very likely to take the l/c line with preflop.

How much Level II/III thinking happens at 200NL?

Yeah I think you are right that villain expects us to fold an overpair a reasonable number of times here, especially because of the coordinated board. Maybe none of that matters because his hand-range likely has me crushed, but if he would know we frequently folds hands like this we would be very easily exploited imo. Second level thinking as in "thinking about what your opponent likely thinks you have" is something I'd do all the time (as I guess everyone else on this forum) and sure, a lot of players do think on level 2. I'd guess if he were to interpret that I would see his c/r as a set so therefore he bluffed he was thinking on the 3rd level? But I dunno, multiple-level thinking makes me dissy

Basically, Level I thinking is the straightforward "This is what I'm supposed to do", Level II is "Villian knows what I'm supposed to do, so I'll do the opposite." Level III is "Villian knows that I know that he knows what I'm supposed to do, and that I could conceivably be doing the opposite, so I'll play straightforward now and possibly do something deceptively confusing later"

In this situation LevelII thinking would result in the line he played for a set c/r. He did the opposite of what you expected him to do, in checking, then raised.

Level III thinking would have been lead the flop c/r the turn.

Level II thinking with nothing probably leads the flop, folds to a raise, and leads out big on the turn if you flat call.

Level III thinking with nothing probably c/r the flop hoping you'll fold a better hand.

With a set:
Level I: b/b or b/c/b if you raise.
Level II: c/r lead turn
Level III: b or b/c and c/r on the turn, again depending on if you raise.

With nothing:
Level I: c/f
Level II: b/f or b/b depending on if you raise
Level III: c/r/f


Take this all with a grain of salt though, I'm probably way off here.

Here are the results. Maybe it was overzealous of me to push and perhaps I was lucky he had what he had. At the time I thought a number of drawing hands like 88, 98 and 87 were in his range as well as hands like A9 or TT. He thought for a long while, requested time and finally called.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $316
UTG+1: $102.35
MP1: $173.10
MP2: $341.70
MP3: $241.75
Hero: $251.30
Button: $194
SB: $63.85
BB: $277.40

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with A A
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises to $13, 4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Flop: 7 9 6 ($33, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $24, ]MP2 raises to $55, Hero raises all-in $238.3, MP2 calls.

Turn: 2 ($509.6, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $509.6)


River: K ($509.6, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $509.6)


Results:
Final pot: $509.6
MP2 showed 9d 8d
Hero showed As Ac

Take this all with a grain of salt though, I'm probably way off here.

Actually, I think you're not that way off. Interesting reasoning imo. Now that we'd know what he had we see your original analysis (he might be c/r-bluffing if he thinks we can fold an overpair) proved kind of right. He did have many outs though, but of course he was stupid to give me so much credit as folding an overpair

I can see why he plays with bots, I don't think he'd be winning any money at all calling AI for ~200 to win a bit over 300 with 14.5 (13+bd flush) outs at best if he's behind. And he's never ahead here calling AI with 8d9d.

He did have as many as 13 outs after all, but because of stacksizes I thought my push would get a little bit more leverage.

He's about 2.2:1 against winning because he needs to improve, and he's taking 3:2 odds on his call. That's -EV every time isn't it?

I mean this is where all the profit comes from, people stacking off because they know they have some chance of winning the hand, but ignore the fact that they aren't getting the right price.

Remember that he is drawing two cards so he is about 50% hitting with the turn and river combined.

You're right he's taking 0.95:1, although you have redraws against everything but his straight outs. If he hits on the turn and not the river. Silly overflow looking at the wrong odds column on the outs chart I wasn't thinking clearly. 2.2:1 didn't seem right with him being over 50% to hit. Haste makes waste I suppose, lesson hopefully reinforced (for myself).

A little tip for you with counting odds instead of having to look at the chart.

Your percentage chance of hitting a draw (per card) is just about the number of outs multiplied by 2.

e.g. Flush draw has 9 outs. 9x2 = 18. So about 18% chance of hitting on the next card (or 4:1).
Actual chance of hitting is 9/47 = 19%. (close enough).

The more outs you have the less accurate this method becomes but its never more than a couple of percent out.

25 outs. 50%

25/47 = 53%

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0b1H...elated&search=

Phil folded. I guess that tells you something. I think Phil instacalls here if Booth didn't ask him how much he had in his stack preflop after Phil re-raises to 14k. I think Phil put him on a low pocket pair when he wanted to know his implied odds.

The situation isn't the same but it's pretty damn similiar.

I think the push is a spew. I'm not sure I disagree with calling. You have position and seeing a turn and his action will provide you with enough info to make a bettter decision. The OESD's with and without pairs are always in his range and he's making a standard play with a good draw.

Just because he will bet on the turn is no reason to shove a full stack in his face without a read that he calls without the correct odds to draw. Normally he folds the hands you beat and calls with the parts of his range that have you smoked.

Just to elaborate on my last point:

Say you make up your mind that he is more likely to have crap or a draw and that you won't fold your AA.

Options after the check raise:

1. Call. On the turn he bets his whole range (which you are calling because you made up your mind to go all the way.

2. Push. He calls with all the hands like sets 2pair made straights that have you smoked. He's likely to fold most bluffs and hands you beat unless he has a good number of outs to the winning hand.

There is a third option of raising less than your whole stack, but I won't analyse that. I actually find the idea good, but would like a better player to comment on the option.

Ok so lets look at how we win our mistakes. Remember that if he has a much better hand (straight, set , even 2 pair) you are the one making the mistakes, so for this paragraph asume you have him beat and he is bluffing. In scenario 1 we win everything he bets at us on the turn (and even the river if we flat call and he 3 barrel bluffs). Or we push over the turn bet and just win that. But we definately win more or his money.
In scenario 2 he folds all of those bluffs and we make nothing from them. He may call with some of his strong draws and make a big mistake but that is much less likely So your expectation for pushing is smaller.

Now of course you lose your whole stack in scenario 2 if he's not bluffing, but in scenario 1 there is a chance you'll get away with some of it via him not getting it all in. So overall I think the expectation of a call would exceed the expectation of a push in this case.

Whilst I'm not sure whether calling is the best option, i'm 100% sure it's better than pushing.

That is en excellent analysis gingerwizard, I take my hat of for you. Basically my thought process when pushing was that he was more likely to c/r with more marginal hands like the pairs and open-enders than he was with the sets. I seriously considered folding but after I made up my mind I thought pushing might seem huge, but it would protect my hand and induce a mistake if he's calling a draw w/0 the proper odds. I am really not able to that kind of in-depth analysis as you just did at the tables, but I will definately remember this discussion next time a similiar situation occur.

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

Just to elaborate on my last point:

Say you make up your mind that he is more likely to have crap or a draw and that you won't fold your AA.

Options after the check raise:

1. Call. On the turn he bets his whole range (which you are calling because you made up your mind to go all the way.

2. Push. He calls with all the hands like sets 2pair made straights that have you smoked. He's likely to fold most bluffs and hands you beat unless he has a good number of outs to the winning hand.

There is a third option of raising less than your whole stack, but I won't analyse that. I actually find the idea good, but would like a better player to comment on the option.

Ok so lets look at how we win our mistakes. Remember that if he has a much better hand (straight, set , even 2 pair) you are the one making the mistakes, so for this paragraph asume you have him beat and he is bluffing. In scenario 1 we win everything he bets at us on the turn (and even the river if we flat call and he 3 barrel bluffs). Or we push over the turn bet and just win that. But we definately win more or his money.
In scenario 2 he folds all of those bluffs and we make nothing from them. He may call with some of his strong draws and make a big mistake but that is much less likely So your expectation for pushing is smaller.

Now of course you lose your whole stack in scenario 2 if he's not bluffing, but in scenario 1 there is a chance you'll get away with some of it via him not getting it all in. So overall I think the expectation of a call would exceed the expectation of a push in this case.

Whilst I'm not sure whether calling is the best option, i'm 100% sure it's better than pushing.

He could have a draw and give up if he misses but push if he hits it.

Heh, I'm glad you got the best of this guy and his ultra-secret 1.4BB/100 hands profit making system this time.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

Just to elaborate on my last point:

Say you make up your mind that he is more likely to have crap or a draw and that you won't fold your AA.

Options after the check raise:

1. Call. On the turn he bets his whole range (which you are calling because you made up your mind to go all the way.

2. Push. He calls with all the hands like sets 2pair made straights that have you smoked. He's likely to fold most bluffs and hands you beat unless he has a good number of outs to the winning hand.

There is a third option of raising less than your whole stack, but I won't analyse that. I actually find the idea good, but would like a better player to comment on the option.

Ok so lets look at how we win our mistakes. Remember that if he has a much better hand (straight, set , even 2 pair) you are the one making the mistakes, so for this paragraph asume you have him beat and he is bluffing. In scenario 1 we win everything he bets at us on the turn (and even the river if we flat call and he 3 barrel bluffs). Or we push over the turn bet and just win that. But we definately win more or his money.
In scenario 2 he folds all of those bluffs and we make nothing from them. He may call with some of his strong draws and make a big mistake but that is much less likely So your expectation for pushing is smaller.

Now of course you lose your whole stack in scenario 2 if he's not bluffing, but in scenario 1 there is a chance you'll get away with some of it via him not getting it all in. So overall I think the expectation of a call would exceed the expectation of a push in this case.

Whilst I'm not sure whether calling is the best option, i'm 100% sure it's better than pushing.

He could have a draw and give up if he misses but push if he hits it.

Granted, but I don't see how that changes my point about our EV being better with a call than a push. I actually think the hand is worthy of more discussion and it's a shame OP posted the results already.