200NL: turn: combo draw vs loose player

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (10 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($135.88)
MP3 ($371.99)
Hero (CO) ($200)
Button ($43.35)
SB ($79.57)
BB ($196)
UTG ($42)
UTG+1 ($40)
UTG+2 ($200.93)
MP1 ($96)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, 10
1 fold, UTG+2 raises $4, Hero calls $4, 1 fold, MP2 calls $4, 4 folds, SB calls $2

Flop: ($17) 8, 10, K (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $14, MP2 calls $14, 2 folds

Turn: ($45) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $30, Hero ???

villain was 27/10/3
I believe that here we have to c/r and get it in if villain 3bets, no?
Was the flop bet bad? Was it preferabe to try and c/r?

plan your hand! (as someone once said)

This is an easy bet bet push line for me.

Turn looks like a position steal, why would he bet $30 for value here? You have enough outs (13 if I count right?) and a mid pair to make a push profitable.

I don't understand why you aren't betting the turn here with a good hand. I would have bet $30 here.

Besides this is the fact that he's played passively, and you say he is loose.
He could have Top pair or better, but if you bet it gives him the opportunity to make a mistake - because him calling with set/two pair/top pair -when He is ahead- is a mistake.
If he is loose passive he's likely to call whether ahead with TP or behind with Straight or Flush draw, so its so much better to bet.
If he raises after a turn bet then probably fold unless you're getting enough from the pot.

By checking here you totally gave him the power to hand to you a tough decision. Give him the decision!! Take the power back!

FLop - hero bets $14
Turn - hero bets $40
River - hero bets $120~ and is argh in!

Chat
Hero: sick line

you dont have to bet too much on the turn if not improved.You might manipulate villian into doing what you want him to do by choosing a relatively smaller bet size. Like ED miller said in one of his articles, varying bet sizes smartly can improve your bottom line a lot.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

FLop - hero bets $14
Turn - hero bets $40
River - hero bets $120~ and is argh in!

Chat
Hero: sick line

Miffed, won't you prefer a c/r on turn instead of $40 bet? We would get more value from LAG villain, no?

Originally Posted by jimmy44

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

FLop - hero bets $14
Turn - hero bets $40
River - hero bets $120~ and is argh in!

Chat
Hero: sick line

Miffed, won't you prefer a c/r on turn instead of $40 bet? We would get more value from LAG villain, no?

if you're taking this line with strong hands too on this board

Originally Posted by jimmy44

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

FLop - hero bets $14
Turn - hero bets $40
River - hero bets $120~ and is argh in!

Chat
Hero: sick line

Miffed, won't you prefer a c/r on turn instead of $40 bet? We would get more value from LAG villain, no?

I prefer the threat of an oop turn bet, meaning im 100% shoving the river (or at least thats the threat to our opponent on the turn) Someone else pointed out as well im taking this line with sets boats etc and tp in a lot of spots against steals in lp battles

Also, i find too many players check behind on the turn and then are intent on calling a river bet, so we lose all our fold equity and threat; we have to tip our hand strength oop also (unless of course we c/r the river as in high stakes games)
Whereas a turn bet sets up us acting first on the river and forces our opponent into all the big decisions for their stack.

however, i accept a lot of people like a turn c/r, i just dont because a turn c/r commits you regardless i.e if you get shoved over. While a turn pot bet is threatening but not strictly commited (PNL will say we are just short of the commitment threshold and can fold with only 20-25% of our stack in but the threat of a shove ever present)