50nl - I think I'ma c/r the river...

Thoughts?

Villain is a 15/12/3 regular with a 32% ATS , 63% flop cbet, 50% turn cbet.

We haven't really tangled much, he's 4bet shoved into a squeeze of mine once but nothing noteable postflop...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($38.10)
Button ($50)
Hero (SB) ($55.25)
BB ($100)
UTG ($53.50)
UTG+1 ($73.70)
MP1 ($51.30)
MP2 ($23.25)
MP3 ($43)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $2, 5 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($4.50) 5, A, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($10.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75

River: ($22) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks

i'd have checkraised the turn but yeah sure checkraise the river, not like he's gonna call with less than AK if you lead

I linked the hand in the IRC and iopq suggested the option of leading the turn+river since he's never really barreling the turn with air, and he might even be capable of folding Ax to a river c/r..

I think I like c/r'ing the turn better actually..not like he's going to fold Ax at that point and it's the easiest way to get the money in.

c/r turn is also "I can has set or exactly AQ"

Originally Posted by iopq

c/r turn is also "I can has set or exactly AQ"

lol yeah that's why I didn't do it and instead planned for a river c/r. The only good it really does is potentially level him into thinking I do it as a bluff, or just have him call anyway if he's stationy.

it's not like we can really rep any bluffs when we c/r river, unless you want villain to think we're turning TT into a bluff or something which nobody will give you credit for. We need to c/r somewhere though if we want to get stacks in which we obv do, I guess the river is fine. Just hope he's a station.

I don't really like leading out on the turn and river since I don't know what it accomplishes. By letting him bet twice again we have gained almost as much from him anyway, and I guess his range has possibly got some bluffs in although that chance is very slight. More importantly, I don't know if we stack 55 100% if we lead, and we certainly stack AK a lower percentage of the time.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Originally Posted by iopq

c/r turn is also "I can has set or exactly AQ"

lol yeah that's why I didn't do it and instead planned for a river c/r. The only good it really does is potentially level him into thinking I do it as a bluff, or just have him call anyway if he's stationy.

so what, anything you do other than fold says "I can has set or AQ (or AK if he doesn't always 3bet pre)"

Originally Posted by TwoSmeets

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Originally Posted by iopq

c/r turn is also "I can has set or exactly AQ"

lol yeah that's why I didn't do it and instead planned for a river c/r. The only good it really does is potentially level him into thinking I do it as a bluff, or just have him call anyway if he's stationy.

so what, anything you do other than fold says "I can has set or AQ (or AK if he doesn't always 3bet pre)"

haha yeah, against anyone competent I cleary need to have some bluffs in my range here?

I think the street people will generally not fold an Ace on in this situation in the turn followed closely by the flop. Calling down to craise river seems meh