64o newbie blind defense and he's check/calling?

Just sat down. Crytal ball has like 50 hands on this guy and puts him at around a 40/5 split.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 ($50.85)
MP2 ($25.20)
MP3 ($80)
Fnord ($100)
Button ($153)
SB ($42.45)
BB ($38.90)
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($35.40)

Preflop: Fnord is CO with 6, 4. Fnord posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $3, Fnord (poster) calls $2, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.

Flop: ($10.50) 3, 4, 4 (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Fnord bets $5, UTG+1 calls $5, MP3 calls $5.

Turn: ($25.50) T (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Fnord bets $15, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls $15.

River: ($55.50) 2 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Fnord bets $20...

Final Pot: $95.50

I'm pretty stumped on this one..

I'm going to say he has AcTc.

On the flop I was thinking something like AK/AQ/KQish. Hence, I made a bet he could call drawing almost dead to my trips.

On the turn I had to protect against the flop check/call likely draw from the 3rd guy but still was very WTF?!?!? I think I should have bet $20 or just potted it here.

On the river I just couldn't put him on anything he'd want to stack off with.

I'm gonna put him on Ax clubs here, possibly an overpair.

Originally Posted by edudlive

I'm gonna put him on Ax clubs here

Why and on what street? I would think the A flush draw bets out on the flop.

I'm gonna take a stab here and guess he was probably playing something retarded like A5. He probably was guessing it was battle of the high card and with the straight draw stuck with it and got lucky. Far fetched, I know, but just a guess.

Bet $10 on the river. Price him in, and possibly induce a bluff when your betting pattern goes haywire.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Bet $10 on the river. Price him in, and possibly induce a bluff when your betting pattern goes haywire.

What game/stakes are you playing? How well are you doing?

I dunno... weird hand. My first guess would have been overs that missed (AQ/AK). But his lack of continuation bet on the flop is unusual. You would think almost any pocket pair (except threes...) would bet out to protect on the flop. Crystal ball sample is too small to really know a whole lot. The river situation is a tough one. He raised and then check-called the whole way, which is usually either overcards or a slowplay. But the board is not slowplay-friendly, since you have one of the two fours, and the only other monster in the closet involves pocket threes. I could almost see him having A5 if he's a feesh.

It doesn't seem like it's very likely he has anything that is behind you on the river that he would still call with. AT and hit his ten? He would have probably bet or check-raised on the turn. Only the worst player is calling you there with AK/AQ. I'm torn between value-betting when you're not likely to get called (but possibly going to get check-raised) and just checking behind. But a check behind seems like a real waste of trips when it seems so unlikely that he has you beat.

I'm pretty sure I play it about like you did. If he comes over the top of me on the river, I swallow hard and probably fold to his A5 or 33 or (maaaaybe) TT. But without knowing how this wrapped up, I would usually assume he had overcards, a flush draw, or some combination (like overcards and a backdoor flush draw, who knows).

Or he raised with A4 s00ted and hit the miracle. If so - sucks to be you.

Results:

He called and showed KK, MHIG.

I love those rare birds who play hands in a completely irrational manner.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

I'm torn between value-betting when you're not likely to get called (but possibly going to get check-raised) and just checking behind. But a check behind seems like a real waste of trips when it seems so unlikely that he has you beat.

I'm a limit player, I like to bet the river for value. Maybe I just haven't been slapped around enough to stop yet?

Heh heh. I tell you, getting slapped around by big raises on the river will "cure" you of a lot of habits that maybe aren't even -EV. Finding good value bets on the river may be one of the most rare and underrated skills in poker.

fnord, why post in the CO?

Originally Posted by gabe

fnord, why post in the CO?

Full table, it's not a big deal. Actually, I'm more comfortable defending out of the CO than the BB.

Newbie blinds are -EV. I always wait for the BB at the start and finish of every table session.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Newbie blinds are -EV. I always wait for the BB at the start and finish of every table session.

How much money is posting in the CO costing you at a 8ish handed table? I'm getting to see 5 hands for 1bb and the blind money is going in when I have the best position. How much money is waiting out 5 hands costing you if you're a favorite in that game?

Newbie blinds are fun to play and a great way to get my table image going in the right direction. If the table nits think I'm a fish for posting them, then that alone might be worth the price.

BTW, right after I won that pot I said something like "I had a good feeling" or something lame like that to draw attention to the fact I just played 64 offsuit and maximize the advertising value of my play.

In live games, I never wait more than 2 hands to play. Sit down, post and say "lets gamble." That simple act gets things started on the right foot.

I agree, this is cheap advertisment that is only barely -EV even considered in isolation. From the cutoff at the right table I'm playing a whole lot of hands anyway; might as well start the trend off early.

How much money is waiting out 5 hands costing you if you're a favorite in that game?

I guess posting the newbie blind is +EV if you're making >20bb/100 outside the blinds.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

I guess posting the newbie blind is +EV if you're making >20bb/100 outside the blinds.

Posting any blind costs you less than the amount of the blind in expectation. DUCY? When making a -EV move, at least get the math right! *chuckle*

Let's be pessimistic and say that posting my big blind has an expectation of negative half a big blind. In that case, a newbie blind should have a better expectation because of my improved position post-flop and ability to attack the button + other blinds. Attacking other blinds is fun in a NL game because you get zero credit for having anything. I've already stacked a couple people this way.

Finally, you need to post something at some point to see hands without blind money in the pot. How much worse are you off posting from the CO vs comming in from the blinds? You're paying 2/3 of the cost, to see 3 fewer hands, however your sunk cost has better post-flop position.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Attacking other blinds is fun in a NL game because you get zero credit for having anything. I've already stacked a couple people this way.

woot and shit. Having a monster in a blind war = +++EV... it's about as good as having a monster in heads up play.

Further consider that players who play well in these situations tend to play 6 max. Hence, I love playing short-handed poker at full tables when the situation warrents.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Let's be pessimistic and say that posting my big blind has an expectation of negative half a big blind. In that case, a newbie blind should have a better expectation because of my improved position post-flop and ability to attack the button + other blinds.

You're right. It seems reasonable to have an expectation of 2/3 blind at the newbie blind alone (so a net loss of 1/3 blind). The 4-6 free hands after it make up for that, assuming an winrate of 6-9 bb/100 at those positions.

So new strategy: Starting a table by posting the newbie blind at the button

I really should start reading a decent book or two about poker.. This is probably standard stuff

Im sure he could call more than 20 on river

(i know im annoying with this, but im a huge fan of overbetting rivers with monsters when i know the opponement likes his hand)

Posting a newbie blind is the least of anyone's concern that plays poker... I do it in late position without fail. Early position I'll wait for the BB.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Bet $10 on the river. Price him in, and possibly induce a bluff when your betting pattern goes haywire.

What game/stakes are you playing? How well are you doing?

50-200NL. Doing well. Basically what you have here Nord is a guy who took the initiative preflop. He doesn't have an overpair since he just smooth called the turn. I'm guessing he's VERY weak on the blank river (maybe flush draw?). He's not going to call an escalation river bet, so in having a fairly good read on the situation, you have to think your only edge is the fact that the opponent doesn't want his investment wasted. You bet $10 because you he can't call $20 anyway, and you want to extract a move from a psychology of desperation without seeming suspiciously alluring or "value betty". You might even do $15. Tough to gauge the perfect amount.

I think a alot of people misread an opponents strength and make incorrect late street bets. This is a very weak opponent hand IMHO, though I could be wrong. I do whatever I can on the river to make weird shit happen here.

If he has an overpair (unlikely) and is getting tricky, a $20 bet may potentially stall his confidence. He just might smooth call. If he does have the overpair, then he may go over the top of $10. I'm just thinking it out, and it seems reasonable. What's your take?

Do you think $10 gets called more than twice as often as $20?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Do you think $10 gets called more than twice as often as $20?

On this board with the presented action preflop and postflop I think yes. To be honest, I think neither gets called a large percentage of the time. That's why I "resign" myself to potentially stimulating a move by the opponent (rarely will it happen), and I think the clincher is pricing AK in for a crying call.

There is an acception, as always. If you read the opponent as tight passive, then you have to modify your thinking considerably. This opponent will slowplay till the river with a high pocket like this and pay off a considerable value bet fearing the board pair all the way, but unwilling to fold to any bet not monstrous. Also, this opponent will NOT make a move. Without that kind of read, I go in the other direction however. The board is completely disconnected (besides the wheel which beats you), and overpairs almost always get heavy on the flop or turn.

Honestly, what do you think he has? I'm thining AK or a couple clubs. I base my bet according to that assumption, since it's the most common result.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

pricing AK in for a crying call.

I thought I priced AK into a heroic call if he puts me on a busted draw. I also made it an easy call if he did happen to have a hand he could call with.

I provide the rope, the rest is up to you...

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Rondavu

pricing AK in for a crying call.

I thought I priced AK into a heroic call if he puts me on a busted draw. I also made it an easy call if he did happen to have a hand he could call with.

I provide the rope, the rest is up to you...

Will most believe a draw played this fast throughout, when considering a showdown call to snap off a bluff? I know I play draws fast with perceived fold equity, and I'm sure you do to, but I'm weary about giving too much credit to my opponent for putting me on such a hand when deciding best value, since too many dismiss the possibility entirely when their opponent acts this confident. In fact, that's why you play it fast to begin with, so that you may increase your implied odds on a made hand. Higher stakes players will most definately give you credit for a broken draw bluff here of course. Even then they would have to believe you're capable based on past actions. I mean I'm just brainstorming with you on it, and really don't hold a lot of loyalty to my resolve, but I guess I just see it that way. Very interesting.