AA vs. turn c/r

Villian is 27/12 over ~50 hands, no specific reads. I thought he could be on a draw from the flop play, but does the turn c/r scream set?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($19.45)
UTG ($33.70)
UTG+1 ($49.95)
Hero ($50.30)
MP2 ($21.50)
CO ($48.75)
Button ($47.20)
SB ($67.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 4, 6, 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.5, Hero raises to $5, UTG+1 calls $3.50.

Turn: ($15.75) J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $10, UTG+1 raises to $28, Hero ???

certainly looks that way. villain tried to get in cheap as possible, then cute little underbet on flop. But I usually cry-call this stuff. And lose.

I think I can fold this..that c/r is pretty strong..

Does villian's line not seem weird to anyone else here?

Doesn't seem all that weird to me. If a preflop raiser is behind me and a raggedy board like this sets me, I'll often do a little bet like that. I want AK to catch up a bit. I love getting raised there; sets up a big-money checkraise for the turn.

What's throwing you off?

raise the flop more, you gave him odds to chase.

Something seems fishy about his line and I am not getting away from my hand here. I probably push over the turn raise. (puts on flame retardant suit).

Originally Posted by LeFou

What's throwing you off?

I really don't know. I think we have him beat here though. If I had flopped the set, I wouldn't just call the flop reraise. There's a flush on the board and I want to get some money in before it kills our action. So I would throw another bet out there to make sure I got some more money in before the action was killed and to commit the hero into the pot a little more should no spades fall.

The c/r on the turn is odd. Could be a JJ played passively preflop which would definately put us behind but I would be willing to take the risk. Something is just not consistant here which makes me think we're ahead of a poorly executed bluff. Or semi-bluff.

I'm don't use HUDs so I'm not too familiar with the numbers but I gather 27/12 means villian doesn't only play the nuts (am I wrong?)

But yeah I say push the turn.

Renton hook me up with one of those suits please...

27/12 is slightly laggy.

For the results-oriented:

UTG+1 raises to $28, Hero raises to $32.80 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $14.45 (All-In).

River: ($101) 4h (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $101

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has 6h 6c (full house, sixes full of fours).
Hero has Ad Ac (two pair, aces and fours).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $100.65. Hero wins $0.34.

So I lost yet another AA but at least I played it like Renton would have

Originally Posted by Galapogos

If I had flopped the set, I wouldn't just call the flop reraise. There's a flush on the board and I want to get some money in before it kills our action.

HU I'm not even taking the flush cards into account. I put hero on an overpair here, and unless I can put him on an Enormous Overpair I'm letting him take the lead on this flop if he's willing.

I would throw another bet out there to make sure I got some more money in before the action was killed and to commit the hero

That's just getting *your money in there unless he calls.

If Hero has his other likely holding (big unpaired cards) he's Even More Unlikely to call a re-reraise. Talk about killing the action.

Originally Posted by Renton

raise the flop more, you gave him odds to chase.

Oh yeah, good point. That was dumb.

l/c, b/c, c/r. What about that line doesn't scream set? I agree the size of the flop bet is a little odd. However, when I played SNG's my standard line was to lead into the PF raiser with a small bet like this when I flopped a set OOP. The idea is to induce a raise. Then I would c/r the turn. Often that would commit themselves with a turn bet.

I think I go broke here too.. although in theory it's get-away-fromable

the truth is this is exactly how i play sets when my read is an overpair. So fold.

You have his range beat. He got lucky to have the hand he had and you got unlucky. Run this scenario a million times with different hole cards and you will break him in the long run.

Originally Posted by Renton

You have his range beat. He got lucky to have the hand he had and you got unlucky. Run this scenario a million times with different hole cards and you will break him in the long run.

His range includes small pocket pairs here a lot of the time and 99-KK very seldom, do people really limp call these? This looks like a set to me.

His range that beats us is 33, 44, 66. His range that we beat is 55, As3s, XsXs that has overcards, A5, 7s8s, As2s.

I don't know, its close but I can't fold AA here against this player. I wish the sample wasn't so small. If these were his true stats, he has a draw here a whole lot.

Originally Posted by Renton

His range that beats us is 33, 44, 66. His range that we beat is 55, As3s, XsXs that has overcards, A5, 7s8s, As2s.

I don't know, its close but I can't fold AA here against this player. I wish the sample wasn't so small. If these were his true stats, he has a draw here a whole lot.

I think you overestimate how often a draw will take this line. The turn raise screams of a made hand. A strong draw will most often raise the flop and not the turn.

he's telling you that you're beat, just decide whether or not you believe him.

I have lost so many times to unimproved AA in situations just like this that this is an easy fold for me. Very easy...

raise the flop more, you gave him odds to chase.

Something seems fishy about his line and I am not getting away from my hand here. I probably push over the turn raise. (puts on flame retardant suit).

I totally agree with this.
It seems a clever play that opp called on the flop knowing you would bet the turnand he could c/r all in knowing you liked your hand.
fwiw, this line looks horribly odd for want of another word so im calling/pushing here.[/list]