AK, flopped trips

Villian is 10/1. This is okay, even against a very tight player, right? Or am I losing my mind?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($100)
MP3 ($96)
Hero ($100)
Button ($571.15)
SB ($99)
BB ($54.35)
UTG ($72.50)
UTG+1 ($162.07)
MP1 ($129.82)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A. Hero posts a blind of $1. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
5 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $3, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) 4, A, A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6.

Turn: ($21) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB raises to $40.3, Hero calls $75 (All-In), SB calls $48.70 (All-In).

River: ($200) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $200

You are losing your mind.

If you're gonna put him on A10, 1010, or 44, you might as well fold to him on the flop after he checks. Exactly how much of a monster board do you need?

Ok, so the c/c, c/r LOOKS bad, and since your posting this here I assume you lost, but geez. Sometimes your just gonna get slapped, take your lumps.

looks good to me..

Originally Posted by takesix

You are losing your mind.

If you're gonna put him on A10, 1010, or 44, you might as well fold to him on the flop after he checks. Exactly how much of a monster board do you need?

Ok, so the c/c, c/r LOOKS bad, and since your posting this here I assume you lost, but geez. Sometimes your just gonna get slapped, take your lumps.

The only reason I posted the hand is that this guy is 10/1, and called a raise from the SB. So I'd say PF he's got 22+, AQ+ at most. By the time he calls the flop bet and c/r the turn, it's got to be either 44, AK, or AQ. AQ is less likely due to the line he took. I kind of doubt a player as tight as him would slowplay AQ like a monster here. So 44, AK, or maybe AQ.

That's what I was thinking anyway. FWIW I never even considered folding at any point during this hand. In my mind, the chance he's overplaying AQ, has AK, or is tilting and has something else was too great for folding to be good.

Originally Posted by Rockymv

The only reason I posted the hand is that this guy is 10/1, and called a raise from the SB. So I'd say PF he's got 22+, AQ+ at most. By the time he calls the flop bet and c/r the turn, it's got to be either 44, AK, or AQ. AQ is less likely due to the line he took. I kind of doubt a player as tight as him would slowplay AQ like a monster here. So 44, AK, or maybe AQ.

That's what I was thinking anyway. FWIW I never even considered folding at any point during this hand. In my mind, the chance he's overplaying AQ, has AK, or is tilting and has something else was too great for folding to be good.

Good, thought you might be going nuts...

How many hands is the 10/1 over though? 50? 100? I've been coldecked for hours at a time. Anything under 300 I wouldn't use as anything more than interesting notes, I wouldn't base any sort of meaningful decision on it.

Originally Posted by takesix

How many hands

100 or so at the time

Originally Posted by Rockymv

Originally Posted by takesix

How many hands

100 or so at the time

Multi-tabling set farmer? I know of 3 on Party 25NL that I stay far, far away from, because if they're even remotely in a pot it means they hit that set.

The more tables I see someone is running, the more I believe their bets/raises -- an 8 tabler simply isn't going to remember me well enough to plan some elaborate head game.

Still, I'm never... eeeever folding that.

Originally Posted by takesix

Anything under 300 I wouldn't use as anything more than interesting notes, I wouldn't base any sort of meaningful decision on it.

I disagree..

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by takesix

Anything under 300 I wouldn't use as anything more than interesting notes, I wouldn't base any sort of meaningful decision on it.

I disagree..

Well what's your cutoff then? Do you have one? I always take the stats into consideration but I don't think something like 50 or even 100 hands is enough to sway myself one way or another if I feel like I have a strong read independent of the stats -- I want to go with my gut, and it's gonna take a big set of numbers to convince me otherwise. This isn't to say I can't ignore my gut and lay something down if a guy is 8/5 with a postflop aggression of like 0.50 and is really laying into me but I'm gonna need to see a large sample to justify that.

Just me though.

Originally Posted by takesix

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by takesix

Anything under 300 I wouldn't use as anything more than interesting notes, I wouldn't base any sort of meaningful decision on it.

I disagree..

Well what's your cutoff then? Do you have one? I always take the stats into consideration but I don't think something like 50 or even 100 hands is enough to sway myself one way or another if I feel like I have a strong read independent of the stats -- I want to go with my gut, and it's gonna take a big set of numbers to convince me otherwise. This isn't to say I can't ignore my gut and lay something down if a guy is 8/5 with a postflop aggression of like 0.50 and is really laying into me but I'm gonna need to see a large sample to justify that.

Just me though.

Uhh..300 hands is more than enough. I usually get a good idea around 50..100 is nice, but 50 ish is enough to know what you're up against most of the time.

VPIP shows itself pretty quickly. PFR needs a bit larger sample. And AF needs an even larger sample to average out. Imo you can almost immediately get a good idea of the VPIP-ballpark (ie if he's a nit or somewhat tight or a loose cannon). Around 50 hands I take stats for their value. The more the better ofcourse.

I think it looks fine rocky. If you lost, that sucks, sorry.

If I have fewer than 100 hands on an opponent I take his stats with a BIG grain of salt. I use PAHUD to display my VPIP/PFR since I've sat down at the table and I've seen some way out of wack stats for myself even after 50 hands. Like 40/20 or 12/5. (I normally run around 22/10). Cards make a huge difference over a small sample size.

i hear what you guys are saying about being careful with small sample sizes, but if someone is 30/10 over 50 hands, its usually not an accident.

Well fwiw I don't think I'm ever folding here... although I would cuss and swear and punch things if I saw 44 flipped over.

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Well fwiw I don't think I'm ever folding here... although I would cuss and swear and punch things if I saw 44 flipped over.

Yeah I did that.