AK whiffed flop vs. nit

Wow every post I make includes the phrase vs. a nit. This one is particularly bad at 9/2/0.6 with 9 attempt steal. How's this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($30)
Button ($55.10)
SB ($51.45)
BB ($54.40)
UTG ($20.20)
Hero ($51.50)
MP1 ($30)
MP2 ($52.75)
MP3 ($50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2.5, 5 folds, SB calls $2.25, 1 fold.

Flop: ($6) 4, 4, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($6) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $14......

I bet the flop most of the time here expecting to get called a lot by worse hands. As played, I think I raise to $16. I don't see what his attempt to steal has to do with this spot. Isn't that based on how often he open raises from the CO and BTN?

Just bet the flop why the hell are you getting tricky? There are tons of great double barrel cards that you can fire on the turn.

He's folding almost none of his range on that flop imo. Unless I fire with the intention of double barrelling almost every turn betting the flop is bad. This folds out probs everything in his range apart from 22/44/maybe TT, or at least that was the logic behind this move.

Originally Posted by Unibomber14

I bet the flop most of the time here expecting to get called a lot by worse hands. As played, I think I raise to $16. I don't see what his attempt to steal has to do with this spot. Isn't that based on how often he open raises from the CO and BTN?

He's 9/2, there are no worse hands in his range. I just put in attempt to steal because it shows he has some positional awareness and a nit calling a UTG+1 raise when he has some positional awareness tells me a lot about his range.

Fold to the nit's bet. You have good data here, use it.

Also, I think you're under-estimating your fold equity to a c-bet.

your play screams AK
bet flop

OK some ranges.

I could have ~ AJ+, 55+ preflop, possibly wider because of the poster so my play doesn't scream AK it screams AJ+ but I dout he can hand read and he's playing about 16 tables.

Villain's call tells me he has AK,22-TT (JJ). I think on the flop I could fold out some of the very bottom of his range with a standard cbet, something like 22-55/AK. Close to 100% of villains range is betting the turn imo, but he has to fold all but TTish to a raise.

All those saying bet flop is that with the intention of double barrelling?

Where am I going wrong?

Also

Originally Posted by badgers

He's folding almost none of his range on that flop imo. Unless I fire with the intention of double barrelling almost every turn betting the flop is bad. This folds out probs everything in his range apart from 22/44/maybe TT, or at least that was the logic behind this move.

Wheeee what a donk 22<33 here and 44 is impossible.

I think you have a lot of fold equity on the flop against 22-99. Fail that, he probably flats most of his range allowing you to take 2 cards off quite often.

I would bet the flop and make it the last money I put into the pot unless I'm calling a river bet with a turned/rivered Ace or King.

You have seven outs to the nuts; your equity is enormous. Bet these flops with AK 100%.

Do you really think this guys folds 22-99 with a c-bet? I don't think he folds any PP here ... at least on flop.
As played on the turn (opp being so passive) you cannot raise his 2/3 bet on turn, his showing you he has a good pair.

Hero raised 5xBB from UTG+1, of course 22-99 will frequently fold to a c-bet. If this was a 3xBB button raise, things change.

Originally Posted by Fnord

I would bet the flop and make it the last money I put into the pot unless I'm calling a river bet with a turned/rivered Ace or King.

this

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Fnord

I would bet the flop and make it the last money I put into the pot unless I'm calling a river bet with a turned/rivered Ace or King.

this

This. Except replace the word 'calling' with betting or raising.

isn't check/calling going to get you paid by worse more if you river an ace or king?

Originally Posted by reprisal

isn't check/calling going to get you paid by worse more if you river an ace or king?

I find that most players would rather call or check than bluff in that spot.

I like a cbet too and agree with Fnord. if he does anything he tells you what hand he has.

Originally Posted by reprisal

isn't check/calling going to get you paid by worse more if you river an ace or king?

In position so doesn't matter much anyway

lawls

Originally Posted by HybridTt

Your thinking is that u want to check the flop to induce a bluff so that when he bets the turn he will have a wider range right?? Then why do u re raise the turn lol?

Ir wasn't to induce a bluff it was to induce a vbet that would fold to a raise. I guess I underestimated the equity AK has on that flop and I don't need to turn it into a bluff but against this opp I honestly thought I had very little FE on that flop. Perhaps I had more than I thought as he is an uber-nit who probs has a no set no bet mentality almost regardless of flop texture.