Anything I could have done different here?

Long time lurker, first time poster. In an effort to improve my game by learning from bad beats/decisions, I submit the following:

I was playing at a home game over the weekend with a couple of new guys (not too fishy, but a little). It was early on in the going, and I didn't have much of a read on the new guys, and I get dealt pocket 7's. I raise pre-flop pretty aggressively (I don't recall the exact amount), and I'm matched quickly by one of the new guys. I immediately assume he probably is holding pocket pairs (probably face cards) given how quickly he moved in to call.

This raises a red flag to me, obviously, but then I hit my set on the flop with a rainbow 10-7-3. I'm first to bet and I know that even though I hit my set, he is not going to back down from any challenge with a likely overpair. I pretty much buy the big pot with my initial bet, and as expected, he calls. I'm a bit wary to go all in, because I know that even with my set, he is likely going to take any overpair to the river and he could out-draw me. The turn comes and it is a 6, so I throw in another bet that leaves me with only about 10% of my chips, and with 90% of my chips in this pot, I'm still wary of being out-drawn on the river, I check at river (a 2s).

He then turns over his cards, pocket 10's and his set of 10's beats my 7's. Now, I was mindful of the possibility of him having 10's when the flop came, and that is why I didn't go totally aggro on the flop. I figured if he flopped the top set, he'd go over the top of my bet and just take the pot down, but he just checked. Why slow play the stone cold nuts like that? It turns out that by the end of the night, it was obvious that the guy was the biggest fish at the table, and I don't think any of that strategy was an issue to him. So is this a bad play or a semi-bad beat?

Thank for the help.

That wasn't a bad play or a bad beat. Pre flop when he calls your raise I would have put him on 2 over cards, may be Ace Queen. After the flop when he calls your raise I would have put him on a high pocket pair maybe Jacks, or maybe big slick and he is going to try to out draw you. I can't see how you could have put him on pocket 10's and avoided losing chips. Are you going to flop a set and then fold it because he may have flopped a bigger set ? I would have had to pay him off.

* I usually don't like to raise big pre flop with small pocket pairs. I like to limp and hope to catch my set.

You were losing your chips here.

Why not slow play the "stonecold nuts"? He was extracting chips out of you and into his stack. Turned out alright for him. Did he not throw out a bet on the river? I woulda put you all in, I have no idea why he did not bet (scared of a straight?).

It is very difficult to put someone on a higher set than you, but I am reading more of PP Cracked and will let you know how to do it when I get to that section.

Beautiful play. We're you in early position or late position with your raise? Everything post flop is perfectly executed.

-'rilla

Another vote from me for excellent play. I don't think there's anything you could have done to avoid losing that hand and those chips short of rivering a 4th seven. Don't knock yourself on it... and welcome aboard FTR.

Originally Posted by Spandrel

It was early on in the going, and I didn't have much of a read on the new guys, and I get dealt pocket 7's. I raise pre-flop pretty aggressively (I don't recall the exact amount), and I'm matched quickly by one of the new guys.

...so I throw in another bet that leaves me with only about 10% of my chips, and with 90% of my chips in this pot...

Sorry to dissent here, but I think it could have been played better. You say it was early on, and you didnt have a read on the new guys, yet 90% of your chips end up in the pot before the river comes.... That's a hellavuh lot to invest in a pot you are uncertain about, especially early on in the game.

The preflop raise I question question the most. It sounds like you are in EP with middle pocket pair. Why the huge preflop raise? I think EP raising with groups 5-7 hands like this is a big leak and will end up costing you in the long run.

Originally Posted by Spandrel

I pretty much buy the big pot with my initial bet, and as expected, he calls.

You can't buy a pot if you are expecting the guy to call. All you can do is value bet (assuming you are certain you have the better hand).

So you're unwilling to put all your money in on a board that is 10-7-6-3-2 with pocket 7s?

You're only beaten by 10-10 and 8-9 and you raised preflop so 8-9 is a long shot.

Weak...

You're getting called by slowplaying overpairs, TPGK/TK, under sets, sometimes middle pocket pairs assuming that you're still swinging high cards... There are just a lot of hands that pay you off and too few that don't. In a cash game, I can't conceive of a scenario where I'd ever lay this hand down.

-'rilla

I could think of some times I could lay that hand, none of them could ever happen unless both me and my opponents had stacks at about 1000*bb and the pot was pretty small. If you can't valuebet a flopped set then you play too weak! It's definitely +EV. However I can't see how the other guy played his hand wrong either except he missed a bet on the river.

Maybe it is weak... I'm not denying that. But there's a trade off of safety to consider.

You're right rilla that 89 is not likely, so that leaves TT. With a guy calling your huge bets like that, you've got to be at least a bit concerned about TT as a real possibility. Any player in their right mind would lay down an overpair to those bets. So tell me, on the turn, what hand could he have?

Maybe it is weak, but at least it's not reckless overagression. A middle set on a board like that is great, I'm not denying, but don't bet the fking ranch on it. The persistence of aggression just seemed excessive to me, especially on players he didn't have a read on. I prefer to build my stack steadily and safely.

We seem to have a difference of opinion on the skill level of the opponent. I give him to little credit (he's a fish) and you give him too much (a shark). But until I stop seeing players overvalue top pair on very comfortable boards, or overvauling 88 or 99 on the board with 1 over that is a ten, I'm not laying down second set.

With all the fish in the sea, I just don't see folding second set here to be a wise move. And besides, it's not the whole f-in ranch. It's one buyin, if he has top set, just buy in again. No biggie.

-'rilla

Here's my mental approach to why I call everytime.

Let's say that you play that hand with that board 10 times but each time your opponent (who is a fish) will get a hand that he will play the same.

So your hand is [(7,7)]

His hands will be [(A,A), (K,K), (A,T), (K,T) (T,T), (9,9), (8,8), (6,6), (3,3), (2,2)] From experience I can say that some relative novices will play (9,9), (A,T), (K,T) and (8,8) like that on that board. It's a good hand with that board (in their minds) but they arn't certain enough about it to raise. Essentially your good passive player. Aces and Kings is strentching it, but it has been done. And, ofcourse, we have the slow playing under sets.

Now with all 10 hands, the same action (or close to it) will probably happen assuming a certain level of fish-dom (Just the casual player, not a moron but not really cognitive of everything going on). So if you get all the money in with 77 in each of these scenarios, you're a big winner in the end.

If he's a great player who does slow play, the range of hands is sliced down to all of the sets and maybe AA (??) but that's still enough hands where you're winning in the end.

And since it's basically the same action, you can't really infer which instance he has TT or which instance he's not sure about his hand but wants too see or which instance he thinks he's slowplaying a set and trying to get you to make a good hand. So folding in any of the situations would be a losing move.

Do you see my reasoning here?

-'rilla

Problem is there are no really safe ways to build a stack. You must get your money in when you think you have the best of it. Poker is gambling. In that case I would have paid the better hand off unless I had a real good read on him knowing he would never call with top two pair or anything less. I don't think value betting a flopped set is overly aggressive either.

Poker aint about avoiding to lose some pots, it's about dragging in the big ones. Sometimes you can't get away from losing a big pot unless you're psychic. That's just poker. There are no absolute safe ways of making money in the short run and you are expected to lose some of your sessions.

EDIT: This was meant as an answer to FlyingSaucerAttack's post. I was a bit late.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Do you see my reasoning here?

You make good points. I guess I've gotten burned recently assuming my near nut hand is invincible to players who just call. And knowing the results may have slanted me a bit toward skepticism of Spandel's play, only because it rings true to my recent experiences. In other words, a few days ago I would have played it the same way. lol....

I've recently been reminded that calling big bets is a sign of extreme strength (maybe moreso than raising) - most non-fish know intuitively that you don't call a bet unless you are quite sure you have a better hand or good pot + implied odds drawing to a better hand. Based on the board and preflop betting this is definitely not a drawing situation, so the guy must have been pretty sure of himself. Smooth calling sends a message of weakness to your opponent, thereby encouraging your opponent to continue on betting the next street. I think there may have been a failure to realize this.

Then again, you're right because the guy didn't bet on the river. Why not?? He probably was a fish that got lucky. Thanks for your comments. and now that I think about it you probably did play this right post flop, my only concern is the preflop raise with 77 in early position.

Thanks again for all of the replies.

I wanted to thank everyone here at FTR for all of the advice. I can't tell you how much the advice of the community here has helped my game. I've been playing for years by "intuition and feel", and have recently decided to make an effort to learn sound fundamental strategy to what I think is the greatest game/competition on earth. Some of the advice here has helped correct some major flaws in my fundamental game, and for that I thank everyone. I've also asked "Mrs. Santa" for Sklansky's Theory book, as well, and I am anxious to see how that will help further solidify my fundamentals.

Thanks again from the chronic lurker.

I have to say, this is one of the best topics I've read in FTR...good banter.