AQ turned 2 pair, lay it down?

i have 200 hands on villain, he is 13vpip, 5pfr, won $ at showdown 6/8. Seems like a good player. I didn't like my turn play btw, it was kind of weak.

What do you put him on?

FullTiltPoker Game / Table Anasazi - $0.50/$1 - No Limit
Seat 1: littleyoshi ($84)
Seat 2: HIM ($165.40)
Seat 3: slaxer5 ($208.40)
Seat 4: JoPuppy ($174.15)
Seat 5: ME ($134.05)
Seat 6: WGMe123 ($87.80)
Seat 7: AbrahamFroman ($55.55)
Seat 8: JamesB126 ($54.35)
Seat 9: lacrosse22 ($48.50)
WGMe123 has 5 seconds left to act
WGMe123 posts the small blind of $0.50
AbrahamFroman posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ME [Ad Qh]
JamesB126 folds
lacrosse22 folds
littleyoshi folds
HIM calls $1
slaxer5 folds
JoPuppy calls $1
ME raises to $5
WGMe123 folds
AbrahamFroman folds
HIM calls $4
JoPuppy folds
*** FLOP *** [6c 7h As]
HIM checks
ME bets $7
HIM calls $7
*** TURN *** [6c 7h As] [Qd]
HIM checks
ME bets $10
HIM raises to $35
ME calls $25
*** RIVER *** [6c 7h As Qd] [7s]
HIM bets $75
ME ??

fold

I did fold, and he showed. But we'll get to that later.

I think most would fold here knowing his stats, so i'll just get to the results:

ME folds
Uncalled bet of $75 returned to HIM
HIM shows [Ts 8s] (a pair of Sevens)
HIM wins the pot ($93.50)

===========
I made a relatively weak turn bet because I wanted a call, and i didn't put him on a straight draw. I think because of that he thought I was weak and decided to make a play on the turn. After the river he just repped a hand knowing I'd probably lay down TPTK or 2P.

Still, no way I could call the river since I'm most likely paying off a set/boat I think.

i 3-bet turn, the only hand you could possibly put him on that has you beat is 66.

Originally Posted by bair

i 3-bet turn, the only hand you could possibly put him on that has you beat is 66.

Right on!

Why are you not representing a strong hand on the turn? Because that's exactly what you had. Your weak turn bet stunk of weakness that was just begging to be bluffed out of your monster hand.

This hand isn't as bad as my brother a couple weeks ago at a B&M:
His first time playing poker at a casino. He has AK and raises to $20 preflop. 2 callers. flop comes AK7 all clubs. He starts freaking out because he doesn't know what to do... he's scared of the clubs! as if someone flopped the flush with a royal flush draw or something. He's first to act, checks. player to his left pushed all in (pot sized bet), player to his left calls, brother folds ?!?!?!?
They turned over QQ and JJ with one club each, both missed the flush. I've bugged him about it ever since.
Oh man, I love watching the newbs shake uncontrolably on their first day.. haha.

Originally Posted by pizzatron

i have 200 hands on villain, he is 13vpip, 5pfr, won $ at showdown 6/8.

You can't value bet this turn against this guy.

if i 3-bet the turn to $70 and he pushes, i'd have to call, no? And if I 3-bet AI and he flips over 66/77, wouldn't I be overplaying top 2p against a 12vpip/won 70%+ showdown guy?

I agree with fnord that the turn bet sucked though. But at the end, i thought that the suspicious-looking bet could've been him thinking that I'd think that looks suspicious and he'd get max value out of his hand.

Originally Posted by BankItPayette

Originally Posted by bair

i 3-bet turn, the only hand you could possibly put him on that has you beat is 66.

Right on!

Why are you not representing a strong hand on the turn? Because that's exactly what you had. Your weak turn bet stunk of weakness that was just begging to be bluffed out of your monster hand.

This hand isn't as bad as my brother a couple weeks ago at a B&M:
His first time playing poker at a casino. He has AK and raises to $20 preflop. 2 callers. flop comes AK7 all clubs. He starts freaking out because he doesn't know what to do... he's scared of the clubs! as if someone flopped the flush with a royal flush draw or something. He's first to act, checks. player to his left pushed all in (pot sized bet), player to his left calls, brother folds ?!?!?!?
They turned over QQ and JJ with one club each, both missed the flush. I've bugged him about it ever since.
Oh man, I love watching the newbs shake uncontrolably on their first day.. haha.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say, but I think that 3-betting the turn against my particular villain is by no means automatic.

I go all in or 3-bet turn like others have said. Top two on this board is a freaking monster. On the river, you should actually be more inclined to call this bet, now that the board has paired 7's, since 77 is that much more unlikely, and the only hand you are realistically afraid of is 66. Then again, I just got PT so I'm not totally familiar on interpreting those stats...

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

Top two on this board is a freaking monster.

What's he limpling and calling the flop bet with?

13vpip, 5pfr

He limp/calls preflop. So, you can pretty much rule out AA/AK/KK, or QQ. So, 99% of the time he's set hunting.

*** TURN *** [6c 7h As] [Qd]
HIM checks
ME bets $10
HIM raises to $35
ME calls $25

In calling that raise, what is your plan for the river? Hit your 4 outter or dump? Call? Raise?
You quite simply do not have the odds to call that turn raise against this type of opp. Either raise to see if he's bluffing, or dump to the turn reraise.

Originally Posted by AHiltz

Either raise to see if he's bluffing.

Explain this line of logic to me.

Originally Posted by AHiltz

In calling that raise, what is your plan for the river? Hit your 4 outter or dump? Call? Raise?
You quite simply do not have the odds to call that turn raise against this type of opp. Either raise to see if he's bluffing, or dump to the turn reraise.

I was trying to slow down the pot, i wasn't going to RR and not call his push on turn, and I could not get myself to RR because if he turned over a set, I'd have been pissed since to me that's definitely overplaying 2p against this type of villian most of the time(13vpip/smooth call pfr OOP/calls flop/wakes up on turn). My plan was to cry and call a value bet on the river hoping that he's bluffing, turning over smaller 2p or some other hand i beat (which there aren't many with his range), or catch my 4 outer. I still think that 2p on the turn putting all this money in the pot can't be to my advantage. Sure, it would have been the "right" thing to do, but I had to give him credit for his very tight, and winning-most-pots-at-showdown image.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by AHiltz

Either raise to see if he's bluffing.

Explain this line of logic to me.

I see it like this. If Hero cbets often as I do, then people will try to float and take the turn. Villian knows that we know he's a rock, and can be trying to pull the wool. I would much rather 3 bet the turn and put villian to the test then call the turn and then crying call a river. I would rather spend that money on the turn.

Thanks for the replies so far, everyone.

Ahiltz, if i 3bet to $70 and he pushes, I can't call right? or can I..?

And yea i've been cbetting a lot, and 1/2 potting (or less) to steal a bunch because everyone kept folding to my bets.

Originally Posted by AHiltz

I see it like this. If Hero cbets often as I do, then people will try to float and take the turn. Villian knows that we know he's a rock, and can be trying to pull the wool. I would much rather 3 bet the turn and put villian to the test then call the turn and then crying call a river. I would rather spend that money on the turn.

As a rule, I don't re-raise people who might be bluffing on very few outs (usally 3 or fewer.) Also I tend not to bet a street into an aggro player if getting raised puts me to a difficult decision. Yeah, we have 2 pair, but the fucked up thing here is that it's not good enough to value bet against TAgg. Besides, bet flop, check turn should almost always draw a river bet from this guy.

Originally Posted by Fnord

As a rule, I don't re-raise people who might be bluffing on very few outs (usally 3 or fewer.) Also I tend not to bet a street into an aggro player if getting raised puts me to a difficult decision. Yeah, we have 2 pair, but the fucked up thing here is that it's not good enough to value bet against TAgg. Besides, bet flop, check turn should almost always draw a river bet from this guy.

Do the amount of times that they fire at the river offset the number of times you don't get a call from them on the turn when you check behind?

Technically we don't know how aggro opp is here. We have flops seen, pf raises and w$as, but we don't have postflop numbers. If he has high postflop aggro numbers what do we do? What amount passive numbers?

I think if he has aggro post numbers, and we fire round two on the turn, the reraise is a good option. If he's passive and reraises, warning lights and shit starts to go off.

FWIW, his total agg factor is a 2. He doesn't play many hands and this is my first big hand with him while multi-tabling, so i don't have any real reads besides what PT tells me.

Originally Posted by AHiltz

Technically we don't know how aggro opp is here.

Fair enough, but we can make some educated guesses from the 13/5 number. Guys like that rarely open limp Axs and call this flop with a worse hand. Just not the sort of guy I want to get into big pots with unless I know he ran into something.

Say instead of my weak turn bet i put $20 into the $24 pot, he min-raises to $48 or more, am I done with this hand?

Originally Posted by pizzatron

Say instead of my weak turn bet i put $20 into the $24 pot, he min-raises to $48 or more, am I done with this hand?

If you don't know what to do when raised, then don't bet.