AQ vs reg, checkraised on Q turn100nl

Villain is a winning reg who I have at 18-12 over 6k hands. His fold to c-bet is a low 55% and his range with the pre-flop call is biased towards 22-JJ, KQs, AQ, Axs and some SCs. He's 3-betting AK, QQ+ about always, but may make a play here calling AA? He's 4% 3-bet.

He will have a pretty good estimate of my range as 77+/KQs/ AQ+ pre-flop, and will eliminate JJ+/flush draws when I check flop behind.

Flop check behind is 50-50, i c-bet a lot, and he calls me a lot. If he was the type to float-fold too much i guess i should c-bet here to be able to barrel any scare card?

Turn is interesting, my bet looks like a bluff given my range and my hand is now at the top of my range - if i fold AQ then am i also folding KK here? probably not, so call and re-evaluate on river? 3-bet? i hate seeing any spade on river and don't see him turning up with many threes here. Fold?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($19.50)
MP2 ($58.50)
CO ($21.50)
Button ($18.50)
SB ($19)
BB ($213.65)
UTG ($48.50)
Hero (UTG+1) ($101)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $3.50, 5 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 3, 3, 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($7.50) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $18 so....

Originally Posted by daven

His fold to c-bet is a low 55%

meh just bet flop I hate giving up when our range is so strong and we have equity anyway, especially if he's calling SCs here.. Just bet and be prepared to barrel, I doubt he's gonna be fucking around too much here since we raised utg+1.

If he calls a lot, I'd c-bet. If he c/r a lot, I might check the flop, but not always.

I call the turn c/r expecting him to give up on a bluff most of the time on the river. Timing on the turn is somewhat important, but mostly for the decision on the river. There really is almost no chance I'd fold the turn.

This is a really easy call. His line is so full of shit.

i fold