baby-deep vs unknown - bottom set

villain is unknown single-tabling 14-6 after 22 hands and has cbet the one time he opened pre and generated a fold. He's also limp-folded once. No relevant pots, this is a deep table and he bought in with $185. I've ground up from $100 but i haven't played a turn in the two orbits he's been here.

I figure his range based on flop play AA/KK/JJ/AK/KJ so folding would be criminal....

likey? or spew?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($185.50)
Hero (MP3) ($219.30)
CO ($79)
Button ($120.25)
SB ($153.30)
BB ($49.55)
UTG ($74.05)
MP1 ($208.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6, 6
2 folds, MP2 raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($14.50) 6, J, K (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets $8, Hero raises to $21, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $65, Hero calls $44

Turn: ($144.50) 4 (2 players)
MP2 bets $117 (All-In), Hero calls $117

River: ($378.50) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $378.50 | Rake: $3

Definitely not spew imo. Folding here would require a very strong read on villain, which you don't have. I like your range, although I don't think KK would have 3-b the flop. Villain could also have something like AsQs, AsTs depends how he plays with combo draws.
I also like your raise on the flop. I would have 4-bet all-in though, because a flush/straight card could kill your action on the turn/make you hate life.
I don't think you can worry about set over set unless you're even deeper than this, though someone else might disagree. I felt this every time.

get it in on the flop. in general, one tablers are excited when they see anything close to a pair

its damm so hard to lay down your bottom set here, so you should get it in right on the flop. I think that you are up against KK+, JJ, KJ,AsTs-AsQs.

yeah ship the flop. theres no merit to calling to let your hand go on a spade turn since u have equity against a flush and can still get jammed on by worse made hands.

The fact that you're almost 200bb deep makes this pretty sick. Also, you seem like you get into a lotta trouble with bottom sets 200bb deep daven. I don't have much experience playing 200bb deep, so idk how often people are stacking off without sets.

Not shipping the flop will bring scare cards quite often on the turn. Qs for example I probably fold to turn shove. Maybe any spade kills his action too... Pot is already big enough on flop to not be slow playing.

interesting - typically unknowns aren't sophisticated to be playing a draw like this, but they could maybe fold tptk to a $100+ four bet?

Flatting means they see how big the pot is on the turn and they're never going to be able to fold any kind of hand.

Agreed that the pot is already big enough not to try and get too fancy though - uncertain of whether flop cib/shove makes more sense than the line I played.

Originally Posted by JinxT4

The fact that you're almost 200bb deep makes this pretty sick. Also, you seem like you get into a lotta trouble with bottom sets 200bb deep daven. I don't have much experience playing 200bb deep, so idk how often people are stacking off without sets.

i end up deep quite a bit, but I feel that my main edge in the games i play is 80-140bb deep - with edge over any non-reg as deep as it goes. I don't feel comfortable playing deeper (covered) than 400bb. There are a number of regs that i feel weaker than 200bb+ deep.

this situation is sick, but the postulated range is accurate so it's an easy hand to play. Anyway, I loved when he flipped AK....

Playing deep against unknowns is gross because we can make a huge mistake against his actual range here. Given that he's unknown we have to give a wider range than just sets here, but it's gross to know that he could have a range of JJ/KK if he's really nitty (which isn't that improbable given his stats).

Following the others - get it in on the flop.
However, its not a fist-pump push by any means