Bad fold preflop?

Or jsut unlucky?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 ($17.50)
MP2 ($20.95)
Hero ($27.95)
Button ($28.35)
SB ($18.15)
BB ($44.50)
UTG ($24.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, 7.
UTG calls $0.25, MP1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold, SB raises to $3, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.75, MP1 folds, Hero folds.

Flop: ($7.75) 7, 5, 3 (2 players)
SB bets $3, UTG raises to $21.4, SB calls $12.15 (All-In).

Turn: ($44.30) T (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($44.30) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $44.30

Results in white below:
SB has Ks Kh (one pair, kings).
UTG has 5s 5d (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: UTG wins $44.30.

I call this preflop and set or fold. You have to think you will get one of their stacks if you hit your set. 4.42:1 on the preflop call, but the implied odds are there....

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

I call this preflop and set or fold. You have to think you will get one of their stacks if you hit your set. 4.42:1 on the preflop call, but the implied odds are there....

You are not getting implied odds. SB only has 5x the bet behind. You can not count on getting the cold-callers stack (IMO).

This right decision is a fold pre-flop.

That's why I folded - counted his stack and said "nope." Then the 2nd caller pushed all-in and nearly tilted me.

Next time just put your hand over the community cards when you fold a pp preflop. If you never know it doesn't hurt.

You may not be able to count on the cold-caller's stack, but with position, I still call this. Cold caller probably calls that flop bets (or even pushes to isolate against shorty). Yahtzee!!! It would take a lot larger PF raise for me to fold this in position....

Your fold preflop was the right play. Heres a good one.




***** Hand History for Game 4557168080 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, June 20, 13:19:06 ET 2006
Table Table 107639 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: poorrichy ( $68.65 )
Seat 2: oceanfax ( $150.30 )
Seat 3: Beelzeboz0 ( $329.90 )
Seat 4: yehitsahemi ( $160.35 )
Seat 6: Sympaattinen_Isa ( $239.25 )
Seat 5: RealEstate10 ( $78.10 )
poorrichy posts small blind [$1].
oceanfax posts big blind [$2].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Beelzeboz0 [ Tc Th ]

Beelzeboz0 raises [$7].
yehitsahemi calls [$7].
RealEstate10 calls [$7].
Sympaattinen_Isa calls [$7].
poorrichy folds.
oceanfax calls [$5].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, Jc, 5h ]

oceanfax checks.
Beelzeboz0 checks.
yehitsahemi checks.
RealEstate10 checks.
Sympaattinen_Isa bets [$12].
oceanfax folds.
Beelzeboz0 calls [$12].
yehitsahemi raises [$24].
RealEstate10 folds.
Sympaattinen_Isa calls [$12].
Beelzeboz0 folds.

** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]

yehitsahemi checks.
Sympaattinen_Isa is all-In.
yehitsahemi is all-In.

** Dealing River ** [ Ks ]

yehitsahemi shows [ 2s, 2h ] three of a kind, twos.
Sympaattinen_Isa shows [ 5s, 5c ] three of a kind, fives.

Sympaattinen_Isa wins $78.90 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, fives.
Sympaattinen_Isa wins $351.70 from the main pot with three of a kind, fives.

Okay, I am not faulting those that lay down pre-flop. However, I don't see how it is that bad of a play to call this FOR SET VALUE ONLY. I have been thinking and have come up with two trains of thought.

If you hit your set one out of 8 times, you need the pot to be $23 or so to make that profitable by pot odds alone. I can't see how it doesn't get there. With the call, the pot preflop becomes $9.50. The $3 dollar lead on the flop becomes more like $4 or $4.50. If the cold-caller only calls, the pot is already $17.50 before it ever gets to you. Then say the cold caller hits bottom set as he did in the hand and pushes, you get his stack and maybe shorty too. No way that pot is less than $45. And I can't see how it is any worse than limp/calling 4x raise with 33, flop comes down 3T7, raiser c-bets, you raise, and raiser folds. That doesn't get you 8:1 either.....

Then I ran it through pokerstove:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,923,608,540 games 15.094 secs 591,202,367 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.1963 % 26.04% 00.15% { 7c7d }
Hand 2: 50.0759 % 49.35% 00.73% { JJ+, AKs, AKo } reraisers range?
Hand 3: 23.7278 % 22.94% 00.78% { KK-22, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo } raise/call reraise range?

We are 3:1 dogs getting 4.42 to 1 odds. Did I do that right?

After the flop:

5,625,690 games 1.453 secs 3,871,775 games/sec

Board: 3s 7s 5c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 85.2578 % 84.77% 00.49% { 7c7d }
Hand 2: 07.9783 % 07.36% 00.62% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 06.7639 % 06.14% 00.62% { KK-22, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }

Renton, I remember you saying one time that the way we get paid off in $25NL is by sets. "See a flop with any pocket pair you can for a reasonable price". I think $2.25 into a $9.50 pot is reasonable preflop, especially since I can dump it unimproved on the flop. FWIW, a reraise to $5 would make me dump this....

I am not discounting the fold, I just don't understand how calling PF is bad. Explain?

even if you put villain squarely on AA, this is still a fold because he barely even has 8 times the bet amount in his stack.

Remember, you don't want to BREAK EVEN with your set value calls, you want to MAKE MONEY. So a situation where the call is 1/12 the effective stack still isn't that lucrative of a proposition. What you want is at least 1/15 or 1/20.

If you have 200 dollars, and they raise to 5, and your clairvoyance puts him squarely on AA, you can literally call with any two cards and flop something to break him with, because you stand to make a LOT of money in relation to your investment.

So why do we discount the cold-callers stack? We have to consider that we will likely get at least some part of it, too, right?

I'm not trying to be difficult, I just can't get my head around this being a bad play......I am truly trying to understand.

you can't really count the caller too much because he probably is making an implied odds call as well.

I am not saying its a horrible call. Its just very marginal EV. All it does is add variance to our game.

Varience....I could use some more of that in my game LOL

you're telling me

i started out losing three buyins today and ended the day up two

standard

I have a lot of days like that, start out in the hole and climb barely out of it, or get a decent win. Just think what my winrate would be if I could reduce my varience

FYI: Here's another thread discussing this set thing
Link