Big draw vs. solid player raising the shit out of me

Notes - no reads, but I took his bet pattern to mean "I have a big pair or better, and I think you have two diamonds and I want you to foldddddddd"

No "fold preflops" I don't care about your starting requirements. Postflop onlyyyyyyy.

Stage #497624347: Holdem No Limit $0.50 - 2006-11-20 19:50:50 (ET)
Table: FLINT (Real Money) Seat #1 is the dealer
Seat 1 - BALDRICH ($99.25 in chips)
Seat 2 - SKUZBUBBLES ($95.25 in chips)
Seat 3 - SCJINX ($21.30 in chips)
Seat 4 - BENMARK98 ($170.25 in chips)
Seat 5 - SUPER_MONKEY ($75.30 in chips)
Seat 6 - PORKANDB ($117.55 in chips)
SKUZBUBBLES - Posts small blind $0.25
SCJINX - Posts big blind $0.50
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SUPER_MONKEY [Qd 9d]
BENMARK98 - Folds
SUPER_MONKEY - Calls $0.50
PORKANDB - Raises $2.50 to $2.50
BALDRICH - Folds
SKUZBUBBLES - Folds
SCJINX - Calls $2
SUPER_MONKEY - Calls $2
*** FLOP *** [7d 10c Jd]
SCJINX - Checks
SUPER_MONKEY - Bets $3
PORKANDB - Raises $9 to $9
SCJINX - Folds
SUPER_MONKEY - Calls $6
*** TURN *** [7d 10c Jd] [2s]
SUPER_MONKEY - Checks
PORKANDB - Bets $17.50
SUPER_MONKEY - Calls $17.50


This hand seems very icky to me. I think I should fold or be more aggressive with this big of a draw, but after he re-raised my flop I decided to try and keep the pot as small as possible and see the turn and the river.

What do you do?

bet bigger on the flop. The pot's about $8, so bet $6. What's a $3 bet going to do? It's going to invite me to raise it to $13.

If you bet $6, then he would have to raise bigger and then you could push and take a bigger pot.

As played, I can't see you going far wrong pushing the flop. Pot's big enough to maximize fold equity and based on the dead money if you can win 40% of the time when called and get a fold 10% of the time, then you're gonna come out ahead. These numbers are really conservative... I expect to win 45% when called and fold 20% against loose villain and win 40% when called and fold 40% against tight one.

Get it all in on the flop, you're the favorite. Don't shut it down with the call, raise again.

actually, i've run some numbers and here's your equity against some likely holdings:

JJ (Top set): 40.30%
KcKs (kings overpair): 48.38%
AsJh (TPTK): 61.92%
AdTd (Nut flush + Pair): 27.88%
JsTs (2 pair): 50.00%
8s9s (made straight): 52.28%

So assuming a range of TT JJ QQ KK AA AJ as per your read I think you're about 50/50. So it's a no brainer - bet the flop bigger and push the flop... get the money in the as fast as possible.

no offense but how can you possibly not 3 bet huge on this flop

A missed fourth street halves the value of your draw..

Why let it get to fourth street?

Originally Posted by salsa4ever

actually, i've run some numbers and here's your equity against some likely holdings:

JJ (Top set): 40.30%
KcKs (kings overpair): 48.38%
AsJh (TPTK): 61.92%
AdTd (Nut flush + Pair): 27.88%
JsTs (2 pair): 50.00%
8s9s (made straight): 52.28%

So assuming a range of TT JJ QQ KK AA AJ as per your read I think you're about 50/50. So it's a no brainer - bet the flop bigger and push the flop... get the money in the as fast as possible.

I think we need to add this to the range;
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.4646 % 26.46% 00.00% { Qd9d }
Hand 2: 73.5354 % 73.54% 00.00% { AdKd }

Our overall equity doesn't change much, though, and the advice stands - push flop.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

no offense but how can you possibly not 3 bet huge on this flop

No offense taken, I agree I played it very badly. Everyones advise is good, this is definantly a spot I need to be more aggressive in.

In general I usually don't like to be too aggressive with draws, even huge draws, I raise them all but getting re-raised scares me into slowing down.

So I shall work on this.

I agree with everyone advocating a push on the flop. Also, I hate the limp call preflop from UTG+1, this flop and when you flop a straight or flush will be the only easy ones.