Blimey it's the nuts ($10NL)

MP1 is 10/5, SB is 27/2 On the flop I'm not sure what SB has but I figure MP1 for tp or overpair perhaps with a spade or possibly a set of jacks. The pot is big so perhaps I should just push but I wonder if SB might come along if I call and also if I might scare MP1 off. Is this sensible or silly? On the turn I might just have got smoked but might be miles ahead, should I just stick it all in given how little is left behind? Thanks all

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2.10
UTG+1: $10.04
MP1: $9.71
Hero: $17.24
CO: $11.38
Button: $1.94
SB: $8.96
BB: $9.65

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with K A
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: 4 J T ($3.1, 3 players)
SB bets $1.5, MP1 raises to $4.2, Hero calls, SB folds.

Turn: T ($13, 2 players)
MP1 checks, [color=#cc0000]Hero???

Your flop call will kill all of your action if a spade hits.

Therfore, push the flop.

I just stick the rest in on the turn, if he has a set theres nothing you can really do. Pf i 3bet a little larger, about $1.20-1.35, but thats just me. Your smooth cold call on the flop is kinda scary, but i dont think theres much else you can do if your trying to get SB in the hand.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Your flop call will kill all of your action if a spade hits.

Therfore, push the flop.

If I might venture a little discussion here a spade will only fall 1 in 5 times right? So is it not better to play as if it won't come? If I knew he'd call my push of course it's the move. Perhaps with the strength he's shown I should assume he will call. Also say it does come and if he's got a high spade he might think he's got me? Or am I talking nonsense

I think you re-raise the flop AI. I'm betting villain has a set and isn't giving your flush credit, or has a lower flush. If villain has a set, he could still draw, I'd rather get it on the flop regardless. If villain has a set, you could prevent him from outdrawing you, and if villain has a flush he'll stick it all in.

Villain seems to like this hand, why not? The next spade could kill action if the flush is low, or outdraw you by board-pairing.

Originally Posted by mixchange

I think you re-raise the flop AI. I'm betting villain has a set and isn't giving your flush credit, or has a lower flush. If villain has a set, he could still draw, I'd rather get it on the flop regardless. If villain has a set, you could prevent him from outdrawing you, and if villain has a flush he'll stick it all in.

Villain seems to like this hand, why not? The next spade could kill action if the flush is low, or outdraw you by board-pairing.

Why do you think villain has a set most of the time here? More likely hes got JT,KT,or AT here than a set, flush is possible, but again unlikely. Pushing over the top is fine on the flop, but sb not going to be following then. I dont think just smooth calling his reraise is a mistake here.

Originally Posted by dsmrolla06

Originally Posted by mixchange

I think you re-raise the flop AI. I'm betting villain has a set and isn't giving your flush credit, or has a lower flush. If villain has a set, he could still draw, I'd rather get it on the flop regardless. If villain has a set, you could prevent him from outdrawing you, and if villain has a flush he'll stick it all in.

Villain seems to like this hand, why not? The next spade could kill action if the flush is low, or outdraw you by board-pairing.

Why do you think villain has a set most of the time here? More likely hes got JT,KT,or AT here than a set, flush is possible, but again unlikely. Pushing over the top is fine on the flop, but sb not going to be following then. I dont think just smooth calling his reraise is a mistake here.

Much as I like having my play defended I'm not sure about the range you put there. Villain raised pf and he only raises 5% so I wouldn't expect to see JT or KT. I figure him for AJ or TT+

I guess i wasnt paying attention to raising ranges, how many hands is this over? 5% is 77+, AKo, and AJs+ although its probly tighter than that from mp1 for him, so i would say the minimum would bet TT+, AKo, and AQs+. Have you seen him limping from mp at all? He may just be limping hands like TT and JJ, and only raising QQ+ from this spot. Hes just as likely to have an overpair here as a set imo, but i still get it all in when the board pairs.

Just ran it through pokerstove and on the flop you have 94% equity against at 5% raising range and 86% on the turn, getting it all in is definately correct.

I changed his ranges to TT+, AQs+, AKo, which i think is a little more accurate range from him in that position and you still have 82% equity on the turn.

Fair enough, He actually had JJ so I guess in this case a flop push would have been best although I very much doubt it made any difference as I don't think he would fold top set. Thanks all

Originally Posted by Pants_101

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Your flop call will kill all of your action if a spade hits.

Therfore, push the flop.

If I might venture a little discussion here a spade will only fall 1 in 5 times right?

But the board will pair every so often which will also screw up your action.. There are too many scarecards out there, and it seems your opponents are married enough to their hands to get it in with you, so you might as well get it in on the flop. Slowplaying is only really necessary when you've flopped a pretty much lock hand and no-one else has anything.