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Bluff?
I haven't been at the table long, and villain has bought a couple pots. His min-raise on the flop screamed flush draw and he didn't do anything to change my mind.
So, to his river bet - what can he have? If he has a set, two pair or an overpair he re-raises me on the flop, so I'm thinking at that point he either has a weak 7 or a flush draw. He would have to be pretty bad if he had 7 with a weak kicker, but some people are pretty bad.
So a T comes on the turn. If he has a T, that either gives him Top Pair plus a flush draw or top two. I think he would raise me with either one of those hands on the turn. I also don't think that he would call again here with a weak 7, so I eliminate that from my thinking. At this point I'm putting him on a flush draw, right or wrong, he's not going to do anything to change my mind. So I don't think he has a Ten.
Then the K comes. I've now determined that he's on a flush draw, but his flush draw could easily include a King. The only thing I think he could possibly have that could beat me is a King. So here's my thinking: If he caught a K he will probably check behind, but he will probably also call a bet, so if I lose I lose the least by checking. I know I could have avoided this by betting the river, but I didn't. It was a mistake. Next time I'll bet.
So, like I said, I thought checking behind would be his play on the river if he had a K, so the all-in smelled really fishy.
Anyone make this call?
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (9 handed) converter
saw flop|saw showdown
MP3 ($15.35)
CO ($98.45)
Button ($25.75)
Hero ($53.45)
BB ($13.45)
UTG ($51.25)
UTG+1 ($23.50)
MP1 ($53.65)
MP2 ($14.50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 7s, Ah.
4 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.
Flop: ($1.50) 3h, 4s, 7h (4 players)
Hero bets $1.5, BB calls $1.50, CO raises to $3, Hero raises to $7.5, BB folds, CO calls $4.50.
Turn: ($18) Tc (3 players)
Hero bets $15, CO calls $15.
River: ($48) Ks (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $36, Hero.......
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