bluffing a reg

14/11/1.4

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP2) ($145)
CO ($100)
Button ($102.15)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
UTG ($139.40)
MP1 ($110.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, Hero bets $5, 2 folds, SB calls $4.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $4

Flop: ($16) 3, 3, J (3 players)
SB bets $9, 1 fold, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($34) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $16, Hero raises to $34, SB calls $18

River: ($102) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $55

14/11/1.4- yours or villains stats?

You are repping an overpair here. He is repping a J. IMO you are not convincing enough to fold out those Js. Would you raise here with QQ, KK, AA on flop? If yes I think your FE is better with a good raise on flop or a bigger bet on turn when you can pretend to be afraid of the clubs.

Anyways I am a firm believer of having good E when FE is rather low, and I estimate our FE rather low here.

no, i wouldnt raise QQ-AA on the flop unless they suck

those are villians stats

Good, the decision must be seen in relation to your metagame and your villains understanding of that game.

Do you only raise 2 pair+, and bluffs/semibluffs, and play more passive with the in between range? If those bluffs compose a small part of your range your FE will be to high with your value range IMO when you raise.

But you should try to maximize FE when you try to bluff. A call, raise is not achieving that because this is not a likely line for QQ, KK, AA unless villain knows your metagame as good as yourself.

To raise the donkbet I would have like the most polarized range ever, like {total air, JJ, 33}. I'm not even sure I would raise JJ.

EDIT: On second thought, nope wouldn't raise JJ
EDIT2: Would you really raise the turn with an overpair? I would either fold or call planning to bet the river.

why wouldnt i? we call the flop with an overpair cuz its so dry, we raise the turn to avoid random backdoor draws and to build the pot and can shove a river

calling turn is still fine if intending to fire any river though

I guess since he's a reg his range isn't necessarily that polarized so raising an overpair would be fine. I was just thinking we probably don't want to build the pot against fish because like their entire continuing range to a turn raise is ahead of an overpair (unless they're like a mega-fish, ofc).

float flop, fold turn. bet if checked to.

bluffing the turn is a bad idea

- you only have A/K as possible outs, and if SB has KJ/AJ you are going to ship him some more money.
- your opponent is representing a narrow range
-you are bluffing an overall tight, passive player

Originally Posted by Parasurama

I guess since he's a reg his range isn't necessarily that polarized so raising an overpair would be fine. I was just thinking we probably don't want to build the pot against fish because like their entire continuing range to a turn raise is ahead of an overpair (unless they're like a mega-fish, ofc).

i'm never taking this line vs a fish, only cuz he's a taggy reg and is capable of folding a lot of pp's in his range or a jack will i try this

mxiu, did you try using the WTSD like we discussed?

i forgot, ill try it out and see if it's significant

fold turn, this line is not believable
a more believable line would be like call turn and bet river, repping Jx/overpairs but double floating is not something I would do anyway

who elses raises the turn with overpairs?
i usually call down, but by raisin we can incr our bluffin range too

doesnt it over rep our hand sorta by raising an overpair, dont see us gettin called in with a J

You need something more then "14/11" to make a play imo.

As for donking range on this flop with no further info, mid PP, J good kicker and perhaps QQ or even KK. I dont mind a raise on the flop even if you dont think your repping much. I doubt he is going to figure it out and get all brave with 88 or something.

Looking at the turn action it looks alot like a J and now you hope that he can fold TP getting a good price on the river. Maybe he can, but it comes back to having more info, knowing that he can see that your strong.

I'd def. look at the donking %.

I assume that guy doesn't call an MP open by another reg very lightly from the SB.

Without any further information I think this is some middle pair a lot, and I don't think it's a great idea to try and bluff him off of that on that board.
I'd just fold the turn.
I prolly won't even raise a 6h and rather try and bluff the river if I really think his donking range is pretty wide.

How is this line not believable? Raising the turn with QQ+ is super standard when he bets half pot on a J336 board, I can't imagine just calling down, you guys are nits IMO. Maybe I'd call down with QQ but with KK or AA I'd take OP's line damn near 100%.

This bluff isn't something I would do often but I don't hate it.

Seriously calling down with KK and AA on this board vs. these bet sizes is a brutal mis-application of pot control that will keep you stuck at 100NL for the rest of your life.

imo QQ=KK=AA here, barring the slight possibility villain has QQ. idk why you would play them differently

I don't think his range is that wide though, QQ is more than a slight possibility for him.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Seriously calling down with KK and AA on this board vs. these bet sizes is a brutal mis-application of pot control

Exactly what I was thinking too. If they're bad, we can extract so much more value out of middle pairs, J's, and QQ. If they're okay but nitty, they muck those hands.

I'm not saying that it is not believable, just that I don't think it will work. If you're repping a range that is either overpairs/sets or a bluff, people LOVE to put you on a bluff, and I really don't think you can get him to fold middle pairs on the turn by raising very often... that's why it's a fine value line. You'll have to barrel the river or hope you draw out imo... so I think if you're going to bluff raise the turn you have to bet the river as you did, but I'd rather just give up on the turn.

I just don't think he's donking the flop 3-way and follows up on the turn with air. If he checks the turn you might get him off 55-TT, but when he bets again I think this is QQ a lot.
There's not even anything he could be semi-bluffing with... I really don't know what you're hoping to make him fold.

fyi, villain does never have a J here, except jj

Originally Posted by ZwiFT

fyi, villain does never have a J here, except jj

and why is that?