Boat...call or shove?

17.2/15
267 hands
5% 3b fyp

I figure he'll only call a shove with AA or better, so...

7 combos of 99, TT, KK
6 combos of AA


$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
7 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG SmileDK! ($107.50)
UTG+1 sebaaastian ($102.40)
MP Hero ($101.50)
CO underdog76 ($101)
BTN SexyTanya69 ($127.65)
SB alehandro2 ($72.45)
BB pokerarb ($100)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 7 players) Hero is MP
SmileDK! raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, SexyTanya69 calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50, 3 players)
SmileDK! bets $4, Hero calls $4, SexyTanya69 calls $4

Turn: ($19.50, 3 players)
SmileDK! bets $11, Hero calls $11, SexyTanya69 folds

River: ($41.50, 2 players)
SmileDK! bets $25, $25 to Hero ($84.5)?

1. QJ isn't folding.

2. his bet sizing indicates he doesnt have flopped set.

3. this guy is an idiot value ship please.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

1. QJ isn't folding.

2. his bet sizing indicates he doesnt have flopped set.

3. this guy is an idiot value ship please.

He's raising QJ UTG?

I'm tempted to link one of spoons how-to-analyze posts

There are 7 combos that beat you. He's bet sizing like someone who does light aerobics with Richard Simmons, so he has zero of them, so if he only ever calls with AA you're fine.

Originally Posted by CBAT

He's raising QJ UTG?

QJs

imo. hes not double barreling with up and down st8 draw. bet sizing is suspect but not indicative of set on flop. i would have reraised on turn for value to 25 maybe. that would likely have led to a call on turn and check on river where you can re-eval bet size for value or overbet for appearance of bluff. I would put him on A9, K9, overpair, or 78. The made straight on flop makes sense to me. IF i have a 78 here, I would bet flop or check 50/50. I would put 80% of pot on turn and if i am reraised, know i am beat or only slightly favored. Since hero doesnt reraise here, i think i am still good and value bet river thinking i have best hand. To answer your question, if i have 78 here as i expect, i call 60 but i dont ship it all because a higher straight showed on river and the board is paired. let me know what you guys think about this

Originally Posted by paratrooper99

imo. hes not double barreling with up and down st8 draw. bet sizing is suspect but not indicative of set on flop. i would have reraised on turn for value to 25 maybe. that would likely have led to a call on turn and check on river where you can re-eval bet size for value or overbet for appearance of bluff. I would put him on A9, K9, overpair, or 78. The made straight on flop makes sense to me. IF i have a 78 here, I would bet flop or check 50/50. I would put 80% of pot on turn and if i am reraised, know i am beat or only slightly favored. Since hero doesnt reraise here, i think i am still good and value bet river thinking i have best hand. To answer your question, if i have 78 here as i expect, i call 60 but i dont ship it all because a higher straight showed on river and the board is paired. let me know what you guys think about this

wat

its ptretty simple here if he is a reet u can shove, if he is somewhat of a decent reg he will be able to fold AK/AA here