bvb

Originally Posted by mbiz

Will he call it with any pair and straight draws - making it for value, with semibluff potential against things like TJ and 9T because we have the draw?

^ pretty much my reasoning

Originally Posted by kiwiMark

I also don't get why flop is standard/good, it seems like we're chopping against non-spade top pairs and overpairs, slight dogs to top pairs and overpairs with a spade and behind sets. What're we expecting him to bet/call with that we're beating? Against flush draws with two overs our edge is also pretty small.

i'm also not going to claim to be any good at poker, but here's my reasoning. Flame away

here goes.
Villain's range pre is not quite ATC, it's a weak ATC - i discount big pairs/AJ+ a bunch (i'll do this with suits in stove) due to his pre-flop sizing. I also discount off-suited hands with a gap >3.

->
AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTd, TdTh, ThTc, 9c9s, 9d9s, 9h9s, 88-22, AhKh, AsKs, AcQc, AdQd, AhJh, AsJs, ATs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AdKc, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AJo-A2o, KdQc, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KJo-K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o

villain's c-bet sizing is weak and he can be doing this with all of his hands with any overcard, any pair, and any piece (pair+/draws), barely narrowing his range after the c-bet to
->
AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTd, TdTh, ThTc, 9c9s, 9d9s, 9h9s, 88-22, AhKh, AsKs, AcQc, AdQd, AhJh, AsJs, ATs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 8s5s, 74s+, 63s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, AdKc, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AJo-A2o, KdQc, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KJo-K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 54o

when we raise here it is for value as we expect villain to call at least one street with a bunch of hands we are ahead of + those that we are behind after the call are hands against which we have huge equity. Villain's 3-bet range is a tiny subset of his overall holdings and we're fairly comfortably calling a 3-bet (see ranges below vs 41% equity) = not 4-betting to get it in
->
calling range
pretty much the same as his c-bet range (i'll drop 22, 44, 55, most Axs/Kxs/Qxs/Jxs not spades, etc), but with some discounting of his possible 3b range (below) - against this range we have 73% equity
AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTd, TcTh, TdTh, 9c9s, 9d9s, 9h9s, 88-66, 33-22, AhKh, AsKs, AcQc, AdQd, AhJh, AsJs, ATs, As9s, As8s, A6s, As5s, As4s, As2s, KQs, KsJs, Ks9s, Ks8s, K7s-K6s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks2s, QsJs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs2s, JTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js5s, Js4s, Js2s, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 8s5s, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, AdKc, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T8o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o, 32o


maximum 3b range (some of this he will call the raise with rather then 3-betting, at least some of the time)
AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTd, TdTh, ThTc, AsKs, AsJs, 77, 33 - note that even against this tiny (and strong) subset of villain's range we have 41% equity

seems like a flop 3b isn't so bad?