call QJs flop TP + oesd 50nl

villain is kinda nit 12-9 and both blinds are whale loose-passive > 50% vpip types. Flop is interesting, villain's c-bet is 60% and he isn't c-betting this flop with air ever. AJ/KQ/AK are all in his range. Is this a trivial raise? how big?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($51.55)
SB ($79.75)
BB ($78.60)
UTG ($48.50)
UTG+1 ($105.30)
MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($80.55)
Hero (MP3) ($56.10)
CO ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J, Q
3 folds, MP2 bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, Button calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($6) Q, 10, 9 (3 players)
MP2 bets $3.50, how big?

call

if you wanna raise, thats going to be as a bluff. Not sure if he cbets AJ, definitely not AK (unless he`s bad)
Prob call now, maybe bluff some good turn cards like clubs/8/

call

if u raise and get shipped on (by nitreg) then you're smoked, and u lose the value of a decent hand/draw

well, zill4 may have got pretty pissed off with my stupidity in IRC but i think he made me figure this one out a lot better without realising it.

<daven> although i started to get it
<daven> once i realised that my raise is likely for value
<daven> so i'm turning a decent made hand with solid equity vs hands i beat
<daven> into a bluff
<daven> now i'm finally getting ti
<daven> maybe

ok, i managed to call this flop in spite of my tendency towards inappropriate raises. Turn is interesting.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J, Q
3 folds, MP2 bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, Button calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($6) Q, 10, 9 (3 players)
MP2 bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($13) K (2 players)
MP2 bets $7,

daven you are a perfect example of the process that keeps people from being good at things. good job buddy.

Originally Posted by reDZill4

daven you are a perfect example of the process that keeps people from being good at things. good job buddy.

describe process?
help me break the cycle?

confusion itt

no.

Originally Posted by reDZill4

no.

fair enough, shame though

the real shame would be letting you waste my time for free

Originally Posted by reDZill4

the real shame would be letting you waste my time for free

lost cause then

i'm abundantly aware that you are. nothing personal.

Originally Posted by reDZill4

i'm abundantly aware that you are. nothing personal.

nh sir

not taken personally

Call flop, call turn, call most rivers

@caddie: when you say call turn, you're saying that his most likely range is AJ or Jx (for a chop)? Don't you think a set might bet the same way?

Originally Posted by jimmy44

@caddie: when you say call turn, you're saying that his most likely range is AJ or Jx (for a chop)? Don't you think a set might bet the same way?

His range consists of AJ, Jx, sets, and some 2 pair hands, possibly AA. If we raise enough to deny him immediate odds to boating up his 2pair/sets hands, he will likely just fold since he's a nit and there's an obvious straight possible. If he shoves he will have Jx combos, one of which will be freerolling vs us (KJcc) and AJ, and we will either be drawing dead, chopping, or at the ass end of a freeroll, all of which suck.

If he checks a blank river, we can heavily weight his hand range to non straights, and get in a decent value bet. If he does bet a blank river, we can still profitably call since his range will still be wide enough to include all those 2pair/sets hands which will likely think they are still ahead.

Originally Posted by caddie444

His range consists of AJ, Jx, sets, and some 2 pair hands, possibly AA. If we raise enough to deny him immediate odds to boating up his 2pair/sets hands, he will likely just fold since he's a nit and there's an obvious straight possible. If he shoves he will have Jx combos, one of which will be freerolling vs us (KJcc) and AJ, and we will either be drawing dead, chopping, or at the ass end of a freeroll, all of which suck.

If he checks a blank river, we can heavily weight his hand range to non straights, and get in a decent value bet. If he does bet a blank river, we can still profitably call since his range will still be wide enough to include all those 2pair/sets hands which will likely think they are still ahead.

Thanks for the amazing explanation!

Originally Posted by caddie444

His range consists of AJ, Jx, sets, and some 2 pair hands, possibly AA. If we raise enough to deny him immediate odds to boating up his 2pair/sets hands, he will likely just fold since he's a nit and there's an obvious straight possible. If he shoves he will have Jx combos, one of which will be freerolling vs us (KJcc) and AJ, and we will either be drawing dead, chopping, or at the ass end of a freeroll, all of which suck.

If he checks a blank river, we can heavily weight his hand range to non straights, and get in a decent value bet. If he does bet a blank river, we can still profitably call since his range will still be wide enough to include all those 2pair/sets hands which will likely think they are still ahead.

nice, thanks

my initial reaction seeing that turn card was "raise it up!". but now i like a call for caddie's reasons. vs such a nitty raise-calling range on the turn we're basically being freerolled.

What everyone else said; call.

ino ino im probably just copying teh ftr regs but my first thought was calling both streets as well. Simply because raising only folds (mostly) worse on the flop and almost definately on the turn. If you raise turn he can fold sets here imo.

He seems keen enuogh to keep putting cautious value bets in so why not let him.

edit to fix poor grammer and add second paragraph.

You really think that a nitty villain 3 barrels a 4 straight board vs our range with worse? Maybe he does maybe not. Flop is definitely a call and turn is probably pretty close but I can't see folding (raising is absolutely terrible). If he barrels the river I think you probably have to soul read a bit but I really don't see him betting again with less than Jx which makes it pretty bad since we are calling for a chop at best.

Caddie is probably right about being able to vbet if he checks but that should be a pretty straight forward stove.