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 Originally Posted by sed
With 8-10 outs I thought I was coming close to being 2.5 : 1 dog justifying the call...
10 outs is about 40% right?
- sed
Not quite - you've only seen 5 cards, leaving 47 mystery cards out there. Your 10 outs are roughly a 4:1 shot to land on the turn. 40% is about right with two cards to come, but you're presuming that you're going to get both cards for the price of one call - and the typical big stack player is going to bet into you on the turn when you miss the draw.
For me, calculating pot odds on the flop starts with the odds of hitting on the next card, not the next two. You can't assume you're going to get a free look at that second card.
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