Can I Fold The Set??

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hero is in CO, Dealt 5c5s
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was running 12/11 over 200 hands or so and I had never checkraised a flop or turn, and had never seen him bluff. So I knew his raise was for value...

Stacks:
UTG ($52.15)
UTG+1 ($160.90)
MP1 ($96.70)
MP2 ($104.60)
CO ($109.98)
BTN ($44.84)
SB ($97.50)
BB ($108.05)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 8 players)
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, MP2 calls $3, CO calls $3, BTN calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2

Flop: ($15.50, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $11, 1 fold, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $11, MP2 folds

Turn: ($37.50, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets $22, UTG+1 goes all-in $146.90, [color=#cc0000][b]

yea

its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.

Snap fold

sorry, i have never seen him checkraise...

Originally Posted by pokerfan

its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.

I don't get this. Isn't it about whether or not he has AA or KK? Why would i care about pot odds.

I'm a micro stakes player, so I may be missing something here... But the guy reps a very tight range. We only need 32% equity and against AA, 99-66 we have %36. We even don't need KK in his range. Can we really put this guy on only sets + str8? And also, I can't see any str8s in his range (except 88 of course).

I would have called this...

Originally Posted by sk8r_daniel

Originally Posted by pokerfan

its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.

I don't get this. Isn't it about whether or not he has AA or KK? Why would i care about pot odds.

I rarely see FR nits turn AA/KK into bluff at this stake.You rep a very strong rang on the turn and the guy happily CRAI.Sorry,I don't think bottom set is good enough to call here. Maybe I call with Mid or top set here depending on game flow and his tendency blah blah.

I'm pretty sure you have less than 36% equity. I think his range is weighted mostly towards 77 and 88. This would be a really strange line with AA.

BTW,if you can't find the fold button and always get married to your set in these marginal situations vs nits,you will not improve your win rate drastically in the long run.

I totally understand what his range is made up of and I know it would be really stupid for anyone to bet AA or KK like this...infact I knew he had the goods.

What I don't understand is the 36% equity you are talking about. Does that mean that he would have to show up with AA/KK 36% of the time for it to be profitable, since its such a huge overbet?

Read this and all will be understood: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

P.S. Ignore the "extra credit" portions.

I feel like a noob

You're supposed to.

lol @ betting this turn

i would say its an easy lay down. too much money and you can always wait for a sure hand

why are you betting the turn?

Originally Posted by daven

why are you betting the turn?

Honestly... I was trying to put him on a range...while my time was running out quickly(Titan sucks for this) so i thought .. hey i have a set and now I'll bet...I'm so used to playing live, where the regs all limp 77 and 88 so maybe I was thinking he must just be playing AA really weird.

I just didn't factor that he is almost never going to have 2 pair or a drawing hand here and i'm probably already crushed. The bet also looks pretty bad because TT-AA(the only hands that I'm beating right now) may fold to the turn bet, but would call a river value bet.

yes you must fold here