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 Originally Posted by LeFou
Originally Posted by koolmoe
There are 9 ways for him to hold AQ, and 12 ways to hold AA or QQ, so the correct percentages should be:
AQ: 43%
AA or QQ: 57%
Your logic is wrong here. You're describing a situation where a deck contains only 4 aces and 4 queens & you give villain two cards.
Zook has the right idea for estimating the breakdown. It's based on the action, not card likelihood. Like in the second half of yr post. This is what makes EV calculation so fuzzy in NL.
My "logic" is not wrong. I was simply estimating the unconditional probability before revising my estimate based on the action. If you are familiar with Bayesian estimation, you might understand the process I was using. BTW, I limited his universe to AA, QQ, and AQ simply because you did as well.
Starting from those unconditional probabilities, I can't figure out how you got 38% and 62% because Villain did not play that hand like AA or QQ.
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