Common situation. Overpair on low flop / turn

edit: That turn wasnt the one i ment. Make it the 2d instead

Heres a situation that often comes up and im not sure im handling it the best way.
Villain is a nitty sort of player capable of floating if he thinks you misses a flop, but hes not hanging around for big bets without the goods. Lets say hes 17/5 or so. The scenario is 50NL with roughly 100bb effective stacks.

Villain is in an earlyish position and limps with 1 or 2 other limpers preflop.
You are sat in a latish position and look down at
and raise to 6bb or so.

Villain calls, all others fold.

The flop comes something like



Villain checks to you and then calls your 2/3 pot cbet.

Turn is a blank. Maybe the



Villain checks to you again.

What is your next move and plan for the hand?

How about if you are out of position and villain smoothcalls the flop.

I have a few ideas about this situation and some are pretty contradictory. Ill post my thoughts later but im interested to see what you all think.

Definately interesting... might overbet the pot to see where im at, and check/fold the river if called.

If you bet on the turn, barely any worse hands are calling you. However if you check the turn, a bet on the river can induce even A high to call, or he may try to stab at the river. This river stab is probably going to be the size of your turn bet, so if you're beat your losing less money by checking the turn.

I think you can mixing up betting (1/2-2/3 pot) and checking behind in position, depending on post-flop reads. I put him on a lower pp, and I think a second barrel usually folds anything but an 8 from a nit with those stats. A check behind with the intention of calling a river bet may get an extra bet out of villain, probably saves you some money if he does have an 8, and isn't very risky given that board. But against a loose post-flop player (who couldn't get away from 77 or 99 in this situation) I'm always betting here. OOP I like betting more than checking.

so i agree with all of the above here, yet in this thread

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-39080.htm

i have people arguing otherwise. Thoughts?

I think the turn card is played depending on what you want to do on or by the river btw.

If we assume our villain sees our cards as XX on 88x then we either want to
1. Showdown a hand with strong showdown value
2. Not showdown
3. Play a big pot
4. Lose the least if villain has an 8.
Our line should vary therefore in these situations to accomadate how we want ot play the hand.

Lead every street 2/3 pot and fold to any raise.

Originally Posted by Renton

Lead every street 2/3 pot and fold to any raise.

go go medium pair all in.

Steals every time.

Villain has a missed pocket pair less than JJ 94% of the time and will call a turn bet most of that time.

Originally Posted by Renton

Villain has a missed pocket pair less than JJ 94% of the time and will call a turn bet most of that time.

so what do we do when we have AQ here?

i checkfold the flop with missed overs sometimes against this player. Mostly I'd probably just bet flop c/f turn.

Originally Posted by Renton

Villain has a missed pocket pair less than JJ 94% of the time and will call a turn bet most of that time.

Disagree with the second part if he's a 17/5 nit (unless hero is super-aggro or has been caught bluffing recently). That's why I think checking behind the turn is a reasonable play here.

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by Renton

Villain has a missed pocket pair less than JJ 94% of the time and will call a turn bet most of that time.

Disagree with the second part if he's a 17/5 nit (unless hero is super-aggro or has been caught bluffing recently). That's why I think checking behind the turn is a reasonable play here.

i think betting two streets gives our range/hand away and doesnt allow us to steal on the river against opps 94% range where we have a mountain of fold equity imo.

17/5 isn't nit

against a 17/5 i may check the turn

I saw the word 'nit' and didn't pay attention to the numerical stats.

Originally Posted by Renton

17/5 isn't nit

against a 17/5 i may check the turn

I saw the word 'nit' and didn't pay attention to the numerical stats.

Hes not a total only plays PPs and AK nit, but hes pretty nitty postflop.

Ill post my thoughts on this tomorrow.

I dont actually think many of this type of player will call a turn bet aswell with just 66 unless you have a loose image. Im very interested to hear peoples opinions on this though because im missing alot of value against this sort of player if this is the case.

Ok heres what I was thinking.

This is a pretty nice flop for JJ. There are no real draws to be afraid of so unless he has overcards were going to be WA/WB. Its not amazingly likely he has an 8 , and if he has 33 or were probably going to be losing a fair number of chips.

AA,KK and probably QQ are usually raises preflop (or at least limp/reraise) so theyre pretty unlikely from this type of unimaginative player.

Betting the flop is pretty obvious. We have the best hand, theres a good chance he'll call with an underpair, and we dont really want to see an A just in case.

After he calls the flop bet is where I think there are two lines.

Obviously if you think he will call again with a missed underpair then you should put out a bet every time. I think this player is probably folding to another strong bet most of the time. If we check behind on the turn and bet another low river I think we have a much better chance of him calling the river bet. Even if he calls a turn bet with just an underpair I think there is virtually no chance in him calling another river value bet with just an underpair.
Also sometimes he will have the FH with 33, (or even sometimes 22). In this case, we wont lose anything on the turn, and he'll probably charge us less than a PSB on the river.

So I think the best play against this type of villain is to usually check behind the turn and then bet the river if checked to or call a reasonable bet if he bets out.

I think its a good idea to sometimes bet the turn as well to cover the times we will occasionally fire a second barrel with an AK type hand, or have a stronger hand like 33 or 22 or AA.

I wonder if people would play this hand any differently if they held AA instead of JJ?

Originally Posted by Pelion

Ok heres what I was thinking.

This is a pretty nice flop for JJ. There are no real draws to be afraid of so unless he has overcards were going to be WA/WB. Its not amazingly likely he has an 8 , and if he has 33 or were probably going to be losing a fair number of chips.

AA,KK and probably QQ are usually raises preflop (or at least limp/reraise) so theyre pretty unlikely from this type of unimaginative player.

Betting the flop is pretty obvious. We have the best hand, theres a good chance he'll call with an underpair, and we dont really want to see an A just in case.

After he calls the flop bet is where I think there are two lines.

Obviously if you think he will call again with a missed underpair then you should put out a bet every time. I think this player is probably folding to another strong bet most of the time. If we check behind on the turn and bet another low river I think we have a much better chance of him calling the river bet. Even if he calls a turn bet with just an underpair I think there is virtually no chance in him calling another river value bet with just an underpair.
Also sometimes he will have the FH with 33, (or even sometimes 22). In this case, we wont lose anything on the turn, and he'll probably charge us less than a PSB on the river.

So I think the best play against this type of villain is to usually check behind the turn and then bet the river if checked to or call a reasonable bet if he bets out.

I think its a good idea to sometimes bet the turn as well to cover the times we will occasionally fire a second barrel with an AK type hand, or have a stronger hand like 33 or 22 or AA.

I wonder if people would play this hand any differently if they held AA instead of JJ?

im interested in how often you think you can steal this pot against the same type of player with unpaired overs.

Assuming the villain is an observant thinking player:

If you fire two barrels often then you should bet here again, if you dont follow up your c-bets very often then you should check behind here.

Originally Posted by arkana

Assuming the villain is an observant thinking player:

If you fire two barrels often then you should bet here again

This assumes that you've actually been caught firing a second barrel, and you think he'll look you up this time because of it. At 50NL I think consistency is overrated vs. using player reads to extract the most chips in the current hand. (I know you play much higher stakes though, arkana.) If you do get a bet from him on the river and showdown your decent hand, then you can fire a second barrel the next couple of times with good hands and hope you get looked up.

I really don't agree with betting on the turn, every hand you are beating is going to call a larger bet on the river from on check on the turn, while they may even fold the turn. While when opps hands are stronger than yours, you're going to lose about the same amount.