Decision on the river.

I'm pretty sure this guy flopped a set. It seemed that he was slow-playing something on the flop, and 8-8 and 4-4 are the only hands that make any sense. Thoughts?

PokerStars Game #2155938778: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/07/21 - 20:17:07 (ET)
Table 'Neufang' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: JackRussell ($93.10 in chips)
Seat 2: JgoLem7213 ($100 in chips)
Seat 3: mooremoney10 ($96.85 in chips)
Seat 4: svensk ($100.20 in chips)
Seat 5: skoal2k4 ($176 in chips)
Seat 6: Born2ride1K ($203 in chips)
Seat 7: dsaxton ($112.80 in chips)
Seat 9: shentim ($111.70 in chips)
shentim: posts small blind $0.50
JackRussell: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dsaxton [Ac Qh]
JgoLem7213: calls $1
mooremoney10: folds
svensk: folds
skoal2k4: folds
Born2ride1K: folds
dsaxton: raises $3 to $4
shentim: calls $3.50
JackRussell: folds
JgoLem7213: folds
*** FLOP *** [8c Qs 4d]
shentim: checks
dsaxton: bets $6
shentim: calls $6
*** TURN *** [8c Qs 4d] [7h]
shentim: checks
dsaxton: bets $10
shentim: raises $15 to $25
dsaxton: calls $15
*** RIVER *** [8c Qs 4d 7h] [Ad]
shentim: bets $42
dsaxton: folds
shentim collected $69 from pot
shentim: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $72 | Rake $3
Board [8c Qs 4d 7h Ad]
Seat 1: JackRussell (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: JgoLem7213 folded before Flop
Seat 3: mooremoney10 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: svensk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: skoal2k4 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Born2ride1K folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: dsaxton (button) folded on the River
Seat 9: shentim (small blind) collected ($69)

yikes! Why call the turn raise if you arn't willing to call off any more if you hit your ace?

-'rilla

Maybe because he only raised $15 on the turn. At that point I still may be able to shown down the hand cheaply. Are you saying because I called $15 on the turn, that I simply must call any bet on the river?

Anyways, nothing about how I played the hand suggests I'm not willing to call anything more on the river. My fold suggests I wasn't willing to call $42.

When he makes a bet that large, it indicates he is either bluffing or has a hand stronger than aces and queens, since A-Q is one of the hands he can most expect me to have.

You bet 10$ to a 22$ pot on the turn. Isn't that a little weak and asking for a raise? If not, please tell me why? I would have bet more on the turn and considered a fold if he pushed. When you call his raise and hit the A it's a pretty tough fold you make on the river. I think I would have called.

I would have called. I don't put him on a set. I think he has two pair and you have him beat or even. I guess AQ or A8.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Maybe because he only raised $15 on the turn. At that point I still may be able to shown down the hand cheaply. Are you saying because I called $15 on the turn, that I simply must call any bet on the river?

Anyways, nothing about how I played the hand suggests I'm not willing to call anything more on the river. My fold suggests I wasn't willing to call $42.

When he makes a bet that large, it indicates he is either bluffing or has a hand stronger than aces and queens, since A-Q is one of the hands he can most expect me to have.

I'm saying once you call the 15 on the turn, you must call any river bet when you improve.

If you felt that even improving meant you were beat, you must simply fold.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Maybe because he only raised $15 on the turn. At that point I still may be able to shown down the hand cheaply. Are you saying because I called $15 on the turn, that I simply must call any bet on the river?

Anyways, nothing about how I played the hand suggests I'm not willing to call anything more on the river. My fold suggests I wasn't willing to call $42.

When he makes a bet that large, it indicates he is either bluffing or has a hand stronger than aces and queens, since A-Q is one of the hands he can most expect me to have.

I'm saying once you call the 15 on the turn, you must call any river bet when you improve.

If you felt that even improving meant you were beat, you must simply fold.

-'rilla

Not really. My assessment of how strong he is can easily change based on his action on the river, which is what happened.

Looking at it theoretically, it's entirely possible to rationally believe there is enough chance of being ahead (combined with the chances of outdrawing two pair) on the turn to justify a call, and then on the river rationally believe it isn't likely enough that you're ahead so that a fold is warranted, even after improving.

As a side note, I watched this guy play for a while after the hand, and he appeared to be a fairly strong player. It's not unlikely that he put me on A-Q in this hand, and so I'm confident I made the right lay down.

Originally Posted by Borax

You bet 10$ to a 22$ pot on the turn. Isn't that a little weak and asking for a raise? If not, please tell me why? I would have bet more on the turn and considered a fold if he pushed. When you call his raise and hit the A it's a pretty tough fold you make on the river. I think I would have called.

The flop was rainbow with no draws aside from an inside straight draw. When he calls my bet on the flop, he probably has a made hand, so there's no reason to try too hard to protect the pot against a draw. I may as well give him a chance to make a marginal call with some sort of a weak made hand. This also helps limit my losses a bit if it turns out he was slow-playing something on the flop.

good fold

The flop was rainbow with no draws aside from an inside straight draw. When he calls my bet on the flop, he probably has a made hand, so there's no reason to try too hard to protect the pot against a draw. I may as well give him a chance to make a marginal call with some sort of a weak made hand. This also helps limit my losses a bit if it turns out he was slow-playing something on the flop.

I see - I guess I 'm playing too many players who would raise with nothing in situations like this

if he check raised you on the turn, there's about a 99% chance he's going to lead out on the river, and he'd look foolish betting less than 25. would you have called 25? i'd almost be more scared of calling 25 than 40.

in short, i'm folding to the turn reraise. (and, i'd also probably bet 15 instead of 10 on the turn but that's a smaller thing).

I agree that its stupid to call a re-raise, then improve and fold to an oversized bet. I think he had a lower two pair or aces. I would have called. Although it is good that you are confident with your descision.

Originally Posted by Waterdick

I agree that its stupid to call a re-raise, then improve and fold to an oversized bet. I think he had a lower two pair or aces. I would have called. Although it is good that you are confident with your descision.

How is it stupid? If you have top pair, get raised a buck, then improve to two pair, and the other guy goes all-in for $100, is it stupid to fold? Obviously the dollar amounts actually matter. It isn't just an issue of "he raised you here, you called, then you improved, he bet and then you folded." He only raised $15 into a proportionately large pot. He could be bluffing or have two pair which I may have 5 live outs against. It's likely enough that one of these is the case combined with my chances of outdrawing two pair to justify a call. Then he bets $42 on the river into a proportionately small pot when, from his perspective, I'm *likely to've improved to top two pair*. In order for me to make this call, I have to assume this guy is dumb. Do you suggest that you just assume your opponent is an idiot and call huge bets in these situations?