do you fold here?

party $25 NL. i am UTG with AQ and raise to $1 (my standard amount for open-raises). guy in MP cold calls.

my impression of this guy is he plays fewer hands than the average fish. i had seen him show down once with JTo in LP, top pair (not much revealing info there). i had also seen him re-raise pre-flop from the SB then follow up with a $5 overbet on the ragged flop, forcing me to fold my overpair of 8's. so his cold call of my UTG raise is a bit troubling.

we go to the flop 3-handed and it comes: J K 8

with over 13 outs, i bet $2 into this scary flop and he is the only caller. at this point the pot is around $7. (sorry i don't have the HH, i'm on my office PC now.)

turn comes 6 and i bet $5.

he raises all-in for another $10.50 or so.

do i make the call? i have the second nuts but he definitely could have cold called me pre-flop and on the flop with the A.

ChezJ

i think im calling.

i dont see any reason for Ad to cream his pants and just push.

I'm probably calling, reluctantly.

On the one hand: What cards could he have and JUST call your bet on the scary flop? Certainly the Ad. If he had a made straight, made set or other cards that you now have beat, I'm sure he would have tried to protect that hand on the flop with a substantial raise. Since he just called the flop and now raised, it's reasonable to suspect he was probably drawing that flop. Do you think he would be drawing to the 9d or Td?

On the other hand, he coulda flopped 2pr, and reluctantly called hoping you didn't have a made flush. Which is perfectly possible. So his bet now is a flat bluff, with only 4 outs to a boat. And he has to do it now while he has enough chips to pull it off.

Also, if I held the Ad in his position I would simply call here and give you a chance to bet the river. So his push sorta smells like he wants to put you on the decision and see if he can get a fold.

On the third hand, Journey may be right that he flopped the nut flush, and he barely managed not to cream his shorts on the flop. He wanted more callers behind, but now that it's heads up, he just wants paid.

Ultimately you don't have much time to puzzle through all of the above. Fortunately, all you need to look at is that it's $10 into a $27 pot and I think if you make this call 100 times, you win often enough to be very EV+. 100 times all-in when only one card in the deck has you beat, that's a 100 hands I'm happy to play.

I'd call every time and it's not close.

Even in my decimated state I'd call this.

-'rilla

{Moved from HE Strat}

-'rilla

i made the crying call and destacked him. he only had T T

I think he has the ten.