Game #234183213: Texas Hold'em No Limit (50/100) - 2004/11/26 - 23:39:19 (EST)
Table "$500Free 201686 - 6" Seat 10 is the button.
Seat 1: kiof1 (2320 in chips)
Seat 2: HalleyB (4595 in chips)
Seat 3: Styln (9180 in chips)
Seat 4: Jesus1 (2265 in chips)
Seat 5: tapout (4160 in chips)
Seat 6: HangSolo (1885 in chips)
Seat 7: urnam0 (3890 in chips)
Seat 9: natalie82 sits out
Seat 10: jeffw24 (1625 in chips)
kiof1: posts small blind 50
HalleyB: posts big blind 100
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to urnam0 [9s Qs]
Styln: folds
Jesus1: folds
tapout: calls 100
HangSolo: calls 100
urnam0: calls 100
Decent implied odds hand, can hit two pair, trips, FH, flush, straight. Loose/passive enough table to pay me off.
natalie82: folds
natalie82 sits back
jeffw24: calls 100
kiof1: calls 50
HalleyB: checks
----- FLOP ----- [Qh 9h 4h]
kiof1: checks
HalleyB: checks
tapout: bets 1800
Notes on this player: Doesn't raise AA preflop, but does raise TT the minimum.
HangSolo: folds
Possible holdings:TPTK, two pair, set, flush, A/K flush draw. Overbetting the pot is something players at this level of play would do with anything from TPTK-set and flush draw. I felt that there was a low chance of someone overbetting this much with a flush cuz at this level people try to slowplay the obvious nuts. So my impromptu calculations went something like: 20% TPTK, 10% two pair, 20% set, 10% flush, 30% flush draw, 10% something else. My options: Push/call/fold. Calling is just weak.
urnam0: raises to 3790 and is all-in
jeffw24: folds
kiof1: folds
HalleyB: folds
tapout: calls 1990
----- TURN ----- [Qh 9h 4h][5s]
joyce11 sits back
----- RIVER ----- [Qh 9h 4h 5s][8s]
----- SHOW DOWN -----
urnam0: shows [9s Qs] (Two Pairs, Queens and Nines, Eight high)
tapout: shows [6h 8h] (A Flush, Queen high)
tapout collected 8180 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot 8180 Main pot 8180 Rake 0
Board [Qh 9h 4h 5s 8s]
Seat 1: kiof1 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 2: HalleyB (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 3: Styln folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Jesus1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: tapout showed [6h 8h] and won (8180) with A Flush, Queen high
Seat 6: HangSolo folded on the Flop
Seat 9: natalie82 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: jeffw24 (button) folded on the Flop

Doing my calculations in hindsight with the % of possible holdings that my reads told me, 70% of the time by pushing I will win a 2400 chip pot. 25% of the time by pushing I will lose 3790 chips, 5% of the time I will win the whole thing of 8180 chips. EV would be +760 chips, which is a pretty big deal. By folding I will have my above average chip stack and essentially a EV of 0.

I took the Aggressive route, and ended up staring at a flush.

Would anyone have folded? I know it's read dependent, but my read that such an overbet tends to be out of the norm for a flopped flush didn't hold up. In hindsight his overbet was probably to drive out higher flush draws. Thoughts on my plays or reads?