Draw your own conclusions

Here's a pretty common situation that I ran into this morning. See what you think.

You're on the big blind and come in for free with 96o. Two other players see the flop, you are first to act of the three. The pot is $2.

The flop comes 99Q rainbow. You check, second player checks, last player bets $2. You check-raise him making it $6 to go. Second player folds, third player calls.

The turn is a 4 and it puts two clubs on the board. The pot is now $14. You lead out with a 2/3 pot bet of $9. The other player goes all in for an additional $16 - you have him covered.

What does he have, and do you call?

No read? I think he has a Q, maybe QJ or QT clubs. How many limping hands have a 9? T9, 98, J9, maybe 97 or (oh no) Q9. Would this guy play these hands? If he's going to bet the flop with a 9, though, you'd think he would go ahead a re-raise it too. If he has QQ or 44 he's a tool.

I say call because I think he re-raises the flop with a 9.

I see a lot of these too.

I'd guess I win about half of these.

This example, though, looks like how a nine plays to me. And most nines are bigger than yours.

What position did they limp from?

Assuming no EP limpers, I think you're safe to call as you should be ahead about half the time. He's obviously not going to have a weak 9, but he may have a Q, JT, or Qx or JT of clubs.

-'rilla

The limper was in middle position. Three folded after him including the button and the small blind.

'rilla and the magician got this right, IMO. He has a queen and called the check-raise out of stubbornness. His all-in on the turn is intended to scare me off the pot and is not really a show of strength. I mentioned the clubs but I don't think they're relevent - if he has a flush draw at that point, it's an accident.

To me, betting the pot in last position on the flop means he probably doesn't have a 9 in his hand, because the majority of players (at least 75%) would underbet or even check the trips hoping to get more money out of the hand. When he flat-calls my check-raise, that seals the deal: he's got a queen with a decent kicker. The occasional devious player will surprise you with a monster here, but I think those instances will be offset by mostly bad players who just have the queen.

In this real hand this morning, he had QJo and gave me all his money.