Ducks vs. decent tag OOP

Villain is 11/9/3 over 300 hands with 30% attempt to steal and 35% w$wsf. He's repping 55/77 (i don't think he shows up very often with 87 or 67) but I think he's FOS a lot so I call with the intention of c/rai on the turn as I would with my monsters here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($17.50)
BB ($27.80)
UTG ($96.75)
UTG+1 ($8.50)
MP1 ($48.75)
MP2 ($65.20)
MP3 ($11.90)
Hero ($52.45)
Button ($60.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with , .
5 folds, Hero raises to $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, Button raises to $9, Hero calls $5.50.

Turn: ($22.75) (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7, Hero raises to $41.45.....

I mean... I think his range is 22-TT here and maybe AQ/KQ (KJ/AJ/AK) with a bit of random crap thrown in. I think he plays almost all his pocket pairs this way and folds them to this shove.

How does he view you? I think that plays into this analysis a lot.

I would think he thinks I'm a mediocre tag who is aggressive in position and will cbet this flop with nearly 100% of my fairly wide opening range. FWIW he doesn't play many tables so he will have time to think about it (and he did)

id c/r the flop then the hand is over if it goes to a turn

he just flatted preflop so maybe hes is being creative with sc in lp and maybe he has that 7 and you are drawing to 2 oots? thats exactly how i would have played if i had a 7. but fwiw i dont think his range is going to help him find a fold and you get called.

If he's bluffing, then WTF is up with his turn bet size?

Originally Posted by Fnord

If he's bluffing, then WTF is up with his turn bet size?

Zing very good. Opp had JJ (which I really did not put in his range at all, note taken) good game me.

I think my plan on the flop was OK but once he bet so small on the turn I should have realised the game was up, changed my plan and folded.

PLAYER NOTE!

How come you don't put JJ in his range here? Just curious.

Originally Posted by sweetlemon69

How come you don't put JJ in his range here? Just curious.

I thought he'd know he was far enough of my range to 3 bet very profitably here. I also thought he wouldn't want to get involved in a 3/4-way pot with jacks and by calling he's giving the blinds good odds to get in on the action. Perhaps I should have considered it more though, the average 50NL reg doesn't 3-bet nearly enough and admitedly I hadn't seen this opp showdown less than QQ after 3betting.

Actually the more I look at this hand the more I dislike my play because my reads aren't strong enough and I the stacks aren't quite deep enough for a meaningful shove. Also I don't think he will bet enough of his range on the turn for this to be good.

LAWLS

Originally Posted by HybridTt

4. its a dry board he can put you on a bluff easily...

don't drawy boards make it look bluffier?

also, b/f the flop. he isn't drawing, and you shouldn't want to play a big pot here.

lawls

I think frequency is pretty key here.

Doing this once in a while is good poker. Hero just picked the wrong person at the wrong time and misread his opponent's turn bet size.

Originally Posted by HybridTt

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by HybridTt

4. its a dry board he can put you on a bluff easily...

don't drawy boards make it look bluffier?

also, b/f the flop. he isn't drawing, and you shouldn't want to play a big pot here.

thats what i said... its a dry board he can put us on a bluff, meaning he is more likely to call light and or reshove light.

i was saying it looks less like a bluff cuz we are obviously not semi-bluffing