Easy fold?

No reads.

Party Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 10 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $19.49
UTG+1: $56.28
UTG+2: $64.62
zach58: $89.53
MP2: $50.11
MP3: $58.80
CO: $40.68
Button: $46.20
SB: $52
BB: $25.60
Pre-flop: (10 players) zach58 is MP1 with Q A
UTG calls, 2 folds, zach58 raises to $3, 5 folds, BB calls, UTG folds.
Flop: 5 9 Q ($6.75, 2 players)
BB checks, zach58 bets $5, BB raises all-in $22.6, zach58 ???

Call, it's a short stack and you are getting 2:1.

If he was a bit lower stacked I'd call.. now it seems to be too much for it to realistically be a mere 'overbluff attempt'.

I think he either had you beat preflop or out flopped you... What is he moving with a pair of 6s? two pair Queens and 6s? The board isn't scary enough to make this kind of bluff...

Equity

AhQd, 51.14%

KK+,KQs,JTs,AQo,KQo, AA 48.84%

Equity

Ah Qd 20,2%

KK 79.7%

you need to call 33% of the pot. Clear call in my opinion. Unless you know the opponent is very tight which usually short stacks are not.

with tptk vs a 50bb shorty, I am never folding.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

with tptk vs a 50bb shorty, I am never folding.

thank you, finally someone agrees with me.

Yeah you are probably right. More likely this guy has KQ or something...

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Call, it's a short stack and you are getting 2:1.

I agree too. Most short stacks don't know how to play short. He has something stupid like QK and thinks your AK missed...

It looks like he has KQ, QJ or a straight draw. I cant see a set or two pair making this play unless they know you will pay them off with TPTK. Im calling here.

i instacall these and its not a leak

Thanks for the comments. I've seen so many overbets with sets that it scared me off. If I had weighed pot odds more I would have called.

Even if he's on a really tight range, it's an easy call getting 2:1...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: 5h 9c Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.1922 % 48.07% 00.12% { AcQd }
Hand 2: 51.8078 % 51.68% 00.12% { KK+, 99, 55, KQs, JTs, KQo, JTo }

And get rid of AA/KK, which I think he would have re-raised, and I'm a favorite:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: 5h 9c Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.7508 % 57.59% 00.16% { AcQd }
Hand 2: 42.2492 % 42.09% 00.16% { 99, 55, KQs, JTs, KQo, JTo }

Damn it!

How is this 2:1? After villian's push, the pot has ~$28 in it. Hero must call ~$23. Are you guys including Hero's call of the AI (i.e., after which the pot is ~$51)? If so, then I've been missing the boat for a long time; Miller and Sklansky: "Pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the bet that you must call. For instance, if you must call a $4 bet, and the pot currently contains $40 (including the $4 bet), then your pot odds are 40-to-4 or 10-to-1." SSHE, p.27.

The pot is $11.75 after my $5 bet and he puts in $22.6o, so it's $34.35. I have to put in $17.60 to call, so it's 2:1.

Originally Posted by zook

The pot is $11.75 after my $5 bet and he puts in $22.6o, so it's $34.35. I have to put in $17.60 to call, so it's 2:1.

Duh. Thanks.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

thank you, finally someone agrees with me.

Heh, I don't think it's about being right or wrong here.. depends on how the shortstacks play at your limit/site.. I've personally seen this so often to mean "haha quickly cash in with my AA/KK" that I'm very cautious here..

easiest call ever

sorry he had KK

I've seen so many overbets with sets that it scared me off

whaaaaaaaaaaaat

Hands most likely played in this manner by this opponent:

Qx (I see this with KQ a LOT)
JT
some more stuff that loses to AQ
the random KK/AA/set/donk 2 pr that you can shrug off

Originally Posted by Lukie

I've seen so many overbets with sets that it scared me off

whaaaaaaaaaaaat

Hands most likely played in this manner by this opponent:

Qx (I see this with KQ a LOT)
JT
some more stuff that loses to AQ
the random KK/AA/set/donk 2 pr that you can shrug off

Ok, points taken, thanks. So when do you get away from TPTK? I learned one obvious answer: not when you're getting 2:1 on an AI bet.

What line in this hand would get you to fold vs. a 100BB stack? Check/call flop, check/call turn, AI river?

I'm trying to learn to get away from TPGK & TPTK and obviously it's making me too cautious.

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by Lukie

I've seen so many overbets with sets that it scared me off

whaaaaaaaaaaaat

Hands most likely played in this manner by this opponent:

Qx (I see this with KQ a LOT)
JT
some more stuff that loses to AQ
the random KK/AA/set/donk 2 pr that you can shrug off

Ok, points taken, thanks. So when do you get away from TPTK? I learned one obvious answer: not when you're getting 2:1 on an AI bet.

What line in this hand would get you to fold vs. a 100BB stack? Check/call flop, check/call turn, AI river?

I'm trying to learn to get away from TPGK & TPTK and obviously it's making me too cautious.

not when you are getting 2:1 against a guy with 45bb's after you raised to 6bb preflop and hit a Q95r flop with AQ. The 2:1 applies less and less the deeper you get.

When do I get away from TPTK? hard to say without a specific hand to look at and reads to go on. Against most opponents, I'm rarely felting a TPTK at 100bb deep unless a lot of money goes in preflop.

What line in this hand would get you to fold vs. a 100BB stack? Check/call flop, check/call turn, AI river?

yeah considering there's no draws out except gutshuts, I'd probably fold to something like that. 1pr hands facing large bets on the river generally don't do well.