flop bottom pair and nut flush - push the re-raise?

Villain is like 30-12 and I think range is broadway, pairs 88+, most aces.
I think villain could be re-raising with loads of hands, but is folding anything but a set if I push. So what is the best play? min 3-bet? bet pot? call? I can't fold.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($20)
MP2 ($9.75)
MP3 ($24.80)
CO ($67.25)
Button ($42.30)
SB ($19.55)
Hero ($51.05)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($56)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 3. UTG posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP3 raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.50) K, 7, 3 (4 players)
Hero bets $2.5, MP3 raises to $5, what are your thoughts?

Call because this guy sucks at bet sizing and will likely make a mistake on the turn. I think your mistake equity here is greater than your fold equity.

Fnord put it perfectly.

"Mistake Equity"

I like that

ok, now what. Folding is tempting, pushing is perhaps silly - but also tempting - but villain is probably calling. Note stack sizes.

Flop: ($2.50) K, 7, 3 (4 players)
Hero bets $2.5, MP3 raises to $5, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($12.50) 5 (4 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $7.5, now what?

ur hand lost most of its value on the turn. i like a flop push instead. as played i fold the turn. or maybe u could rep 64h

i might call on the turn given that we had like 10-14 outs and he seemed to give us good calling odds. The problem is we don't really have good implied odds considering that his stacks is not that deep.

I like to push the shorty. You have about 12ish outs to a winning hand if sometimes he has a set and sometimes not. Need about 3 to 1 odds to call. You're getting that now, but push and maximize your EV here, not to mention some FE (not much at all).

Call the turn too

pushing the turn seems silly. We know we are behind. We know he will call. We are pretty sure hes going to call any river with so little left in his stack, so we can call turn and then shove when we hit/ fold when we miss. We win the same when we hit and lose less when we miss.

looking at the hand again I think the best play might have been to bet $3, villain seems the type to just press the raise button ($3 more) with no thought of bet-sizing and then it's an easy call to see the river.

Pelion, your comment makes complete sense - now that you pointed it out it seems obvious that I had zero fold equity so nothing to gain by pushing. I somehow hadn't realised that!

Originally Posted by daven

Pelion, your comment makes complete sense - now that you pointed it out it seems obvious that I had zero fold equity so nothing to gain by pushing. I somehow hadn't realised that!

I've been slowly learning this lesson the hard way at 25NL. When the pots start building vs all but the tightest of players, your FE has been reduced to nil, and even vs tight players you've hardly got any because they generally won't let a pot build with a marginal hand that they'll fold on later streets.

I've been burned pushing draws on the turn vs 35/5 types so much that I'm convinced the play is -EV -- only worth the draw, which misses most of the time

It's easy to get that blinder-vision "yay semi-bluff" kinda thinking, which ignores the dynamic aspects of this game...

i find that when people do those type of raises its ussually a bluff because they are abot to tilt you have outs to the nuts and probably the lead right now i say push all in and when he folds show your cards so if he does have something like a small pair he starts to fume

"I think villain could be re-raising with loads of hands, but is folding anything but a set if I push"

I dont really agree with this but if this is anywhere near true its a trivial 3-bet/call on flop.

Also, I disagree with Fnord. Since we are out of position, we have poor implied odds on hitting a heart or an ace, and no fold equity if villain makes a decent bet on turn.

Our opponent sucks and will often make very loose calls for the rest of the money on the river. It's it's a bad turn call, then not by much. Also we probably have 1-2 extra outs for when it goes check/check and we're good on the river.