Frustrating Laydown

Sorry I don't have the proper hand history, PokerRoom doesn't have a very good system for looking yours up unless you're still at the table. After obessing over this for some time after this table though I had to post it here and get some opinions:

My stack is about $175 and opponent is about $300 on 100NL. I just arrived at the table about 20 min ago and haven't seen too much of him in action but seems like a pretty straightforward player. No huge pot buys etc.

I'm dealt QQ in the BB. He raises $6 from UTG, everyone folds. I re-raise to $15. He calls. Flop comes down AQx. He raises $50. I think for a long time and then finally fold the hand. I figured without many reads that with a stack that big he wouldn't be playing AK on a flop like that since it was pretty obvious I was playing QQ-AA.

Do you guys agree with my fold? If not, why?

I don't think you have nearly enough information to make this fold. You have a HUGE hand on the flop. If the x wasn't a K, J, or 10, you have the second nuts.

He didn't bet the hand like he had the nuts. He bet it like he had AK and wanted to make the straight draws pay and also find out if his hand is good. It's also possible he got overzealous with his AQ.

If he has AA here, you'll just have to go broke, because I don't think you should be folding this at all.

You made middle set and someone is aggressively betting into you. This is a good thing.

Also note that for him to have AA he would have been trying to trap you pre-flop by just calling your reraise. Most people don't play AA this way most of the time.

I'm sorry, but that was a HORRIBLE laydown.

Why would you ever lay down a set? ever? EVER?!?!?!

Especialyl middle set with what should essentially boil down to a board that offers only gutshots draws.

He has AK, more probable, he has AQ. You should have doubled up on this hand instead of folding.

HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE fold.

I don't mean to be harsh, but from the sound of your post, you were playing with scared money. Were you?

hmmm

Actually, thinking about it again, he may have "xx" (i don't know what this card is, but I'm assuming it's a low card). He may have hit a set himself, thinking he could destack an AK or AQ.

This is looking more and more like a set over set, that you folded the winning hand out of. Chances are, he had one out left to beat you.

I must stand by my conviction that this was a bad fold.

very bad fold.

Alright, I think it's clear the fold was bad.

But what does everyone think the overbet of the pot means? His opponent bet $50 into a $30 pot. Is he using Brunson's technique of overbetting the pot into the pre-flop raiser when he makes a set?

I would be surprised if he made a set with x less than 9, because he raised pre-flop.

Galapogos, do you remember what x was? You also didn't mention whether there were 2 suited cards on the flop or not.

Sorry don't remember what 'x' was but it was a rag. Flop was a rainbow, forgot to mention that.

Anyway though, despite all thoughts it turned out to be a good laydown as he showed AA.

Here was my logic. At the tables I play at 15x BB is a huge raise. Unlikely anything much lower than AKs would call it. I know normally AA would reraise me back but I gave this guy credit. A $300 stack couldn't have been reached with just dumb aggression.

I felt rather than not having enough information to fold I didn't have enough information to call/raise. I was content to lose $15 over $175. Because no way was I going to call, so the raise would have had to be a push.

But anyway that was my apparently flawed logic which saved me $160

But it sounds like the consensus is in such a situation I should push anyway? Really I normally would but something wasn't sitting right. Had to go with the gut this time... but man was it frustrating for that A to show up on the flop!

You either are lucky or you had a good read that you couldn't articulate. Either way, "bank error in your favor, collect $160"

Originally Posted by Galapogos

But it sounds like the consensus is in such a situation I should push anyway? Really I normally would but something wasn't sitting right. Had to go with the gut this time... but man was it frustrating for that A to show up on the flop!

I wouldn't say that you should push $160 into a $80 pot ... but I definitely think you normally would want to raise in the situation. Since he bet $50, I would probably just min-raise. Then the remaining $60 would go in on the turn if he called the flop raise.

Usually when you have QQ, you reraise preflop, and the other guy just calls, you want an A or a K to come on the flop. This way, they likely hit their hand if they have AK or similar hands.

In this particular case you were right ... but I still think this is usually a bad fold.

This is normally a bad fold for the following reason.

This is EXACTLY the same reasoning as folding KK preflop. Only one hand can beat you on that board, and you think that there is a larger than normal chance to have it because of the action before you.

However, more often than not, they WON'T have it.

It's like saying "hmmm...all in preflop with KK? I dunno...it's only the second best hand in poker. I think I'll fold and wait for a better spot." Better spot?!?!?!?! No...

Anyway, this time it worked out, but please don't make a habit of folding sets. It's a losing proposition more often than not.

Nice read. Don't think I could lay it down but I understand his betting out the trip Aces rather then slowplaying. You obviously liked your hand preflop with a big raise over an UTG raise. He could probably assume you had AK/KK/QQ. 2 of 3 of those hands hit that flop BIG and would be tough to laydown.

You didn't say but I'm guessing you checked your trips, or did you bet and he came over the top?

Even if he flipped over AA and said "I've got top set and you're drawing to 1 out." I'm still getting all my money in.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by Aces

Nice read. Don't think I could lay it down but I understand his betting out the trip Aces rather then slowplaying. You obviously liked your hand preflop with a big raise over an UTG raise. He could probably assume you had AK/KK/QQ. 2 of 3 of those hands hit that flop BIG and would be tough to laydown.

You didn't say but I'm guessing you checked your trips, or did you bet and he came over the top?

If he thought that the Original Poster had KK, that would be a VERY stupid bet.

Otherwise, the logic goes through

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

If he thought that the Original Poster had KK, that would be a VERY stupid bet.

Otherwise, the logic goes through

True, but if he narrowed it to those three hands he could conclude either AK/QQ is more likely combined then KK.

So to put it simply, you guys are saying as a rule of thumb you should be willing to pay off the higher set everytime? Same idea as when you have KK vs AA?

Originally Posted by Galapogos

So to put it simply, you guys are saying as a rule of thumb you should be willing to pay off the higher set everytime? Same idea as when you have KK vs AA?

Happily.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Originally Posted by Galapogos

So to put it simply, you guys are saying as a rule of thumb you should be willing to pay off the higher set everytime? Same idea as when you have KK vs AA?

Happily.

-'rilla

Saddily.

is that a word

Originally Posted by Aces

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

If he thought that the Original Poster had KK, that would be a VERY stupid bet.

Otherwise, the logic goes through

True, but if he narrowed it to those three hands he could conclude either AK/QQ is more likely combined then KK.

Yeah, but AK is not likely to call that overbet.

That narrows the chances to 1/3

i wouldnt fold with bottom set in this situation.

Set over set = losing all my money. 'rilla's statement up there is only a slight exaggeration of the truth. Unless I somehow KNOW he has AA - and I mean, "know" as in I saw his cards myself - I am going all in on this hand. And in this case, losing a pile of money.

What 'rilla and dale said.

Set over set is so rare that if you don't pay it off, you're getting jacked out of profit. Now that you've luckily laid down your set-v-set defeat, you're not due for like a couple thousand hands. Bet away!

Originally Posted by lowBoy

Now that you've luckily laid down your set-v-set defeat, you're not due for like a couple thousand hands. Bet away!

careful, its so easy to think like this but the concept is flawed, as every hand is unique and independant of past/future events. (this is the gamblers fallacy)

nice laydown but i wouldnt make it myself. I have folded trip aces on a suited flop to a push (wrong move by me in hindsight as a flopped-flush is unlikely to overbet and push, but 2pair or TPTK might.)

I also folded trip queens on a QKT 2flush flop due to a huge re-raise and putting my opp on AJ - afterwards he said he had 2 pair.

Ive also folded bottom set on a 345 rainbow flop when the maniac in the BB overbet the pot hugely, being in the BB i put him on a flop-straight but in hindsight 2pair is very possible and now i wish i pushed. ..i need to stop folding sets!

So all times ive folded a set, they have been the wrong move and pretty much every time I could of doubled through.

Basically you're bound to be making enough from playing these situations to cover the rare times you're beat.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Even if he flipped over AA and said "I've got top set and you're drawing to 1 out." I'm still getting all my money in.

-'rilla

HMMMMM sounds strangely familiar... Ill transfer 10 bucks to whoever can find the post that this was STOLEN from.

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Even if he flipped over AA and said "I've got top set and you're drawing to 1 out." I'm still getting all my money in.

-'rilla

HMMMMM sounds strangely familiar... Ill transfer 10 bucks to whoever can find the post that this was STOLEN from.

Hmm, I didn't conciously steal it from anyone...

-'rilla

I said that somewhere. The thing is, when I first joined FTR I got the idea of never folding a set from you so I cant say anything...

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

I said that somewhere. The thing is, when I first joined FTR I got the idea of never folding a set from you so I cant say anything...

I think I've only folded a set once. 100 nl, bottom set 6s on QJ6 board. 4 way action. Sb bets, bb raises, ep reraises and me folds 66. EP had a set of jacks.

This was the only one I could find.

-'rilla

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

I said that somewhere. The thing is, when I first joined FTR I got the idea of never folding a set from you so I cant say anything...

I think I've only folded a set once. 100 nl, bottom set 6s on QJ6 board. 4 way action. Sb bets, bb raises, ep reraises and me folds 66. EP had a set of jacks.

This was the only one I could find.

-'rilla

So what made you fold the set here? Was there just too much multi-way action that you had to believe that their was another set out there amongst those other guys?

bet-raise-reraise usually indicates a strong hand, no?

but you had SECOND set, one opponent, and there was an ace on the board and he only bet once

Originally Posted by SinkRox

Originally Posted by lowBoy

Now that you've luckily laid down your set-v-set defeat, you're not due for like a couple thousand hands. Bet away!

careful, its so easy to think like this but the concept is flawed, as every hand is unique and independant of past/future events. (this is the gamblers fallacy)

I know, I was thinking of putting a j/k at the end, but that would ruin the joke. It wasn't much of a joke. Your face is a joke.

(I am kidding on that one too, just so you don't take offense)

edit : double postage

Originally Posted by Galapogos

So what made you fold the set here? Was there just too much multi-way action that you had to believe that their was another set out there amongst those other guys?

I could see folding there. That's a big show of strength; the worst hand I would expect to see from the re-raiser is the straight flush draw, and more likely some higher set. It would still be hard to do though.

I've never folded a set except when the board was showing a very obvious straight or flush and there was one or no cards to come. I've never folded a set on a seemingly "safe" board, but then I've never run into action quite like 'rilla describes.

I've never had three bets into me before with a middle set. I think what distinguishes 'rilla's board from most is that there's no ace. I'm assuming that there was some preflop raising on that one. If there was an ace on that board, I think I'd push. If it was NL25 and I didn't have reads, I think I'd push.

Closest that I've had is having two people push each other with their AQ on a board of 9c Td Ac when I was holding the TT. I just kinda rode along and prodded them with a min-raise after my initial 2/3s pot bet. Got both of their stacks - we were the three biggest stacks at the table too, which was nice.

Originally Posted by lowBoy

I know, I was thinking of putting a j/k at the end, but that would ruin the joke. It wasn't much of a joke. Your face is a joke.

i like your style

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

I said that somewhere. The thing is, when I first joined FTR I got the idea of never folding a set from you so I cant say anything...

I think I've only folded a set once. 100 nl, bottom set 6s on QJ6 board. 4 way action. Sb bets, bb raises, ep reraises and me folds 66. EP had a set of jacks.

This was the only one I could find.

-'rilla

So what made you fold the set here? Was there just too much multi-way action that you had to believe that their was another set out there amongst those other guys?

EP may have been a nut peddler. I was woried action was a flush draw, AQ and QJ. I musta had a lot of respect for EP 3-bet.

-'rilla

It just seems strange to bet $50 into a $30 pot with trip aces. If x was indeed a rag I doubt he would raise from UTG with a small PP. It seems he indeed has AQ and puts you on AK or KK. If it's trip vs trip i suspect you do have to pay him off.

Dan Harrington says it best in Harrington on Hold 'Em Volume 2:

Trips. These are good slow-playing hands, and are much more common than the stronger hands. Some authors tell you to be careful when you flop middle or bottom trips, because you might lose to higher trips. Nonsense. If you get knocked out of the tournament because you lost in a set-over-set confrontation, then it just wasn't your tournament. When your set gets outflopped, you're supposed to lose a lot of money. When I hear someone telling a story about how he shrewdly laid down middle set after some intricate chain of reasoning convinced him he was beaten, my quick (but silent) reaction is "Idiot."

Originally Posted by Galapogos

I'm dealt QQ in the BB. He raises $6 from UTG, everyone folds. I re-raise to $15. He calls. Flop comes down AQx. He raises $50. I think for a long time and then finally fold the hand. I figured without many reads that with a stack that big he wouldn't be playing AK on a flop like that since it was pretty obvious I was playing QQ-AA.

Do you guys agree with my fold? If not, why?

I think this was a horrible laydown, and you were fortunate enough that he actually WAS holding AA. I don't think I would ever lay this down, especially considering your lack of reads and your opponent simply calling your preflop re-raise. I'm paying off AA everytime here.

Also, you never posted what you did when you were first to act on the flop, although I don't think its too important here, I'm assuming you checked.

- Lukie

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Even if he flipped over AA and said "I've got top set and you're drawing to 1 out." I'm still getting all my money in.

-'rilla

No you wouldn't. You would fold.

Believe it or not I have seen people fold an underset on more than one occasion. Someone flopped 999 against me when I held QQQ, and when I raised his bet out on the flop, he folded. He wasn't overly tight, he just had a good read.

The point I'm making is that you should never allow the odds to overcome your read if your read is strong. If everyone on earth played correctly according to odds, then everyone would break even. I think in this case our hero wants to believe he's the next unger, but the truth is our hero made a weak read against an unknown opponent that turned out to be right. The correct play was to put all the money in.

Let's just say you were fortunate he showed AA, and not AK. It made you warm inside, but it was a lucky laydown.

I had two situations in the same tourney where I had to lay down sets. One was to 4 to the flush and the other was 4 to the str8. Wasn't my day. Other than that day, I get paid virtually every time I hit a set.