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 Originally Posted by dsaxton
Honestly, I don't really see the point in analyzing this hand to death, considering I was playing it for fun more than anything else. I didn't know the poker police were going to arrest me for playing the hand.
This discussion has like -1% EV.
Hey, if you have no interest in this, I'll stop talking about it. I was just having a friendly discussion here, and I kind of thought that was why we all came to this forum - to discuss how to play poker better. I'm not arresting you or telling you to play my way. I already mentioned a couple times that I make similar (albeit slightly different) plays on a regular basis, and have spent some time experimenting with playing like this just to learn from the experience. I don't think this is the worst play I've ever seen or anything, I just think it's kinda loose and on the wrong side of break-even. Just my opinion, you're certainly entitled to disagree, and it doesn't trouble me at all if you do.
On the off chance you are over-exaggerating your disinterest though, I'd still like to address the points you brought up.
It's not really rocket science. If you suspect he's weak you raise his bet or bet when he checks and take it down. Statistically, he's going to be weak the majority of the time anyways.
I understand that, I'm just saying that I don't think you can really factor in bluffing as part of your EV unless you know for sure you're better at it than he is. EV is a long-term concept. It only makes sense to think to yourself "I can play this hand and maybe bluff my way to victory" if you also think "I am better at bluffing than the average guy at this table, and therefore my bluffing success percentage will give me more wiggle room." To me, bluffing can make up for a lot if you're playing at a tight table where most players fold to big bets, and project their weakness in an obvious manner. If you have one or more tricky, aggressive opponents in the pot with you, bluffing is a risk that may result in no positive or negative expectation in the long run. Sometimes you bluff and win, sometimes they bluff and you lose, sometimes you bluff and get called (or raised, or re-bluffed) and lose. Without a read on all the people who are in the pot with you, you can't know for sure that bluffing is going to bail you out if your hand misses badly. It would be nice to think it always could - if so, I could play any two cards for any raise and expect to win in the end.
Aside from that, I think you're taking too mathematical an approach to this game with constant talk about "expected value." Poker is not a game where you're given some numbers, you type them into a calculator and find your "expected return." You have to intuit probabilities based on nebulous information and come up with a rough measure of which gambles are worthwhile and which aren't. There isn't much room for any kind of rigor in poker.
Chris Ferguson, Dan Harrington (WSOP winners) and David Sklansky (you know who he is) would emphatically disagree with you. I'm nowhere near as big a math nerd as they are. But math is a HUGE part of winning poker. It just is. The best, most intuitive player in the world still benefits from having at least a rough mathematical understanding of the odds of hitting his draws, or staying ahead of opponents who are on draws. You almost can't win in the long run in this game without at least understanding pot odds and the percentages on common drawing hands.
I don't actually do much math during games, but sometimes there's almost no other way to approach a problem. You don't always have good information or a great read. The trickier your opponents are, the more important it is to understand the long-term implications of decisions you make. That's what is so beautiful about Poker Tracker. If you think a hand is a good one to play, run it in your PT database and see what it's actually doing for you. A lot of plays like this although educational and fun, are basically leaks that cost you money. For example I play a lot of 47o because it's funny and I love posting the hand histories on here, but I know it's a losing hand for me; and if I get concerned about my bankroll for some reason, I'm going to stop playing it.
Huh? I don't understand this at all. You're saying that bluffing is not realistic because you can expect the other guy to come over the top even if he has nothing? Strange.
I'm saying if you are against the type of player who is super-aggressive or super-loose, bluffing is meaningless. You can't bluff a player who will call or raise you no matter what you do. Therefore the option to bluff does nothing for the EV of your hand; it's all about whether or not you'll win by the river. Against a player like that, all you can do is get your money in when you have the best of it, and hope.
"Sucking out" is always what you're trying to do when you call with a draw. Does that mean you should never call a bet with a draw, because "suck out" is a bad term in poker?
No, that's not what I meant... to me sucking out means calling with bad pot odds and not enough implied value and hoping to win anyway. Any time you are just saying "screw it" and calling & hoping, and then you win, that's a suckout. There are good reasons to call bets or make bets when you are behind, but just calling and hoping with longshot draws is bad poker. I'm not saying your play here was "bad poker," but I hope you see my point about this expression.
I'm not going to raise and get involved in a big pot with a marginal made hand when I can't even confidently conclude that I have the best one.
If you can't conclude you have the best hand on the flop, then you have to think your outs may not be clean, which gives you less of a chance of winning and makes those pot odds on that call more formidable... see what I mean? I'd be happy to raise here if I really thought my hand was best, but given the possibility that it isn't, that's why I would usually fold.
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