Good laydown?

I feel I may be becoming soft but I had a bad feeling about this one

PokerStars Game #3094036632: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2005/11/18 - 19:32:18 (ET)
Table 'Innes' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Apex-X ($100.10 in chips)
Seat 2: warsh107 ($130.10 in chips)
Seat 3: CallMeKrazy ($113.55 in chips)
Seat 4: chillinchief ($38.95 in chips)
Seat 5: lumpy73 ($71.90 in chips)
Seat 6: TalentedTom ($144.30 in chips)
Seat 7: cromags211 ($44.10 in chips)
Seat 8: blinchik ($100.40 in chips)
Seat 9: ekitten ($72.40 in chips)
lumpy73: posts small blind $0.50
TalentedTom: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TalentedTom [As Qc]
cromags211: folds
blinchik: folds
ekitten: folds
Apex-X: folds
warsh107: raises $2 to $3
CallMeKrazy: folds
chillinchief: calls $3
lumpy73: calls $2.50
TalentedTom: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [Ad Jh Qh]
lumpy73: checks
TalentedTom: bets $9
warsh107: raises $18 to $27
chillinchief: folds
lumpy73: folds
TalentedTom: calls $18
*** TURN *** [Ad Jh Qh] [9s]
TalentedTom: checks
warsh107: bets $98
TalentedTom said, "jesus"
TalentedTom said, "i have aq"
TalentedTom said, "you are seriously representing"
TalentedTom said, "damn"
TalentedTom said, "3x preflop..."
TalentedTom said, "jeez"
ekitten said, "JJ QQ 99"
ekitten said, "lol;"
TalentedTom said, "jeez"
TalentedTom said, "JJ"
TalentedTom said, "has to be"
TalentedTom: folds
ekitten said, "call"
ekitten said, "call"
ekitten said, "hehehe"
warsh107 collected $63 from pot
warsh107: doesn't show hand
TalentedTom said, "jeez"
warsh107 said, "ak"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $66 | Rake $3
Board [Ad Jh Qh 9s]
Seat 1: Apex-X folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: warsh107 collected ($63)
Seat 3: CallMeKrazy folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: chillinchief (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: lumpy73 (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: TalentedTom (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 7: cromags211 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: blinchik folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: ekitten folded before Flop (didn't bet)


He claims to have AK, but... i seriously dont know
any thoguhts here?

What'cha know about him? Can you rule out KT? I think air is about as likely as 99.

I'll buy that he had AK.

1,100 games 0.005 secs 220,000 games/sec

Board: Ad Jh Qh 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 59.3636 % 59.36% 00.00% { AsQc }
Hand 2: 40.6364 % 40.64% 00.00% { AA, QQ-JJ, AKs, AJs, KTs, QJs, AKo, AJo }

If you can't rule out KT...

1,628 games 0.005 secs 325,600 games/sec

Board: Ad Jh Qh 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.0590 % 43.06% 00.00% { AsQc }
Hand 2: 56.9410 % 56.94% 00.00% { AA, QQ-JJ, AKs, AJs, KTs, QJs, AKo, AJo, KTo }

If you can't rule out KTs...

748 games 0.005 secs 149,600 games/sec

Board: Ad Jh Qh 9s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.3797 % 42.38% 00.00% { AsQc }
Hand 2: 57.6203 % 57.62% 00.00% { AA, QQ-JJ, AKs, KTs, AKo }

edit: FWIW, without a read, I muck this pre-flop.
edit2: AJ and QJ are likely holdings as well...

I had no read on this guy he comes in for a few hands and he left right after this one, the only thing that held be back was the jack.

Originally Posted by TalentedTom

I had no read on this guy he comes in for a few hands and he left right after this one, the only thing that held be back was the jack.

I think you have to pick this battle pre-flop. AQo out of position without initiative is going to put you to difficult decisions more often than not.

On the flop when he raises, I either re-raise or fold depending on the read. I don't like to call here.

Originally Posted by Les_Worm

On the flop when he raises, I either re-raise or fold depending on the read. I don't like to call here.

I hate calling that flop raise to fold to a blank turn. However, if he thinks a call gets a hand like AKo to commit, then it's a good play.

I revised my equity calcs. I over-looked lower 2-pair combinations which are certainly likely holdings if he opens KT. 2 pair over 2 pair possibilities make this a call.

I think Tom wussed out here cuz he's been running bad.

Interesting that he'll make marginal calls for a little money, then chicken out at the end. Nor do I think it's uncommon. I wonder how much money Ripptyde makes on hands like this.

I was gonna play depending on the turn bet, had he bet $40-50 I woulda pushed but he made the descion to really protect his hand, the flop texture is very uninviting to just about any hand.
KT/flush is afraid of somoene making boat, trips is afraid of straight or flush being made.
I felt his thought process was "im going all in with the best of it, nothing more I can do, it's out of my hands" Which lead me to beleive he was defending the vulnrable nuts (KT).
It is also strange to be that a player who is this aggresive post flop would do such a marginal raise preflop with the hand he claimed to have, AK, it seemed illogical.

Originally Posted by Fnord

I think Tom wussed out here cuz he's been running bad.

II think I am more cautious now, I think I can find a better spot to put another 100 bb's.

I would fold here as well. I really do think he has JJ. 99 I sincerely doubt, and if he's playing KT, well...that would just suck.

But I think you'd be behind here more often than not.

difficullt one.......i think i fold this whitout any reads.

Originally Posted by TalentedTom

Originally Posted by Fnord

I think Tom wussed out here cuz he's been running bad.

II think I am more cautious now, I think I can find a better spot to put another 100 bb's.

That's silly. Once you call the inital bet, folding if you think it's a about a coin flip (and I think you're in better shape than that) is really bad. This isn't a tourney where if you bust you're done. I'll "Pick better spots" in small pots on early streets, bigger than that and I can't afford to give up any EV.

Originally Posted by ensign_lee

But I think you'd be behind here more often than not.

Please back this up. Someone.

the most terrible thing is that we will never know The good thing about being broke, is that you never go home curious