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sorry this is a bit long, too. but, i could use some confirmation on what i see...
i think i am going to stick with this (shorting) for a bit. reasoning:
- no implieds against me...and not really a lot FOR me, either, so, i have to watch what i call with pp's. <TT require less than 10-15% of my stack to call, unless there's another jerkwad of dead money in the hand, in which case i call and pray for a triple up, or, in rare cases, i shove over. what happens if i shove over a raise and get called/pushed by AA? who cares? i am 80/20, but only lost 60 bb's. i have lost more on stupid bluffs lately out of monkey tilt/frustration. and i cant remember doing that but once yesterday in 1200 hands.
- it cuts out my drawing hands. thereby cutting out the numbers of times i cbet with weak/normal draws. i still cbet anything 8+outs and still plan to shove turn...mostly for balancing. this is likely where variance will get the best of me, but i dont see myself playing a lot of draws that commit me. i limp (not open limp) AXs from late, occasionally opening when folded to. i dont really play 78s or J9s unless there are already two in the pot, and i dont call raises with them. i either limp it, or if there are two or 3 callers to a big raise, i shove over pf. again, thats for balancing, but its also +EV. i have a hand that has about 30-40% equity pf, is never dominated, and i am getting better than 3:1 on my money. now thats what those hands are made for.
- my cbetting is WAY down. you just cant cbet like a monkey because you are almost committing yourself to the turn push...and you dont want to do that with air. therefore, when i cbet, i usually push over the minraise. sometimes they fold, mostly they dont. i see sets there, but i send a message...dont fuck with my flop bets. therefore, i open up the flops for more cbetting.
i have more reasons and more examples, and i will shoot them at you when the time is right. but, the point is: i am more likely to play MUCH better poker this way. and, i think i understand how to adjust to any adjustments being made against me, too. that should give me an advantage when metagame comes into play. again, they cant just worry about me, they also have to watch out for the other deeper stacks that are silently coming along when they get into pissing matches with me. however, i do NOT need to worry about that adjustment, as effective stacks are only what I carry to the table...not more.
oh, and i may have said this, but table selection doesnt become a huge factor, as most have me covered. i dont sit with 100-200 bb's and think, "why the hell am i always finding 3 shortys on a table?" however, SEAT selection is still a premium. i keep the deeper money on my right still, and, if possible, keep any other shortys on my left. but, i dont get too crazy with it because the other shortys really suck so far. they are playing/calling WAY too many draws.
this is TPTK poker at its finest.
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