Well chopper work it out..

You 4x pre. villain calls. Call it 9x pot with blinds. There is 66bb left in your stack.

7x cbet on the flop. Called. 14x pot going into the turn with 58bb behind. You shove the turn, 58bb into 14. Here's the EV chart (in BB)

%call on the left (sorry cut that out of image im a donkey -- so if villain calls 60% of the time you need to win about 35% of the time to break even PRE RAKE)



Personally, i think that shows a losing proposition, particularly compared with ...

if we had a 50bb, we 5x pre (what I do because my villains still suck enough to call it liberally) 10bb pot, 45bb stack. I pot the flop and get called. 20bb pot, 35bb behind. Much less of an overbet shove (which looks more bluffy IMO) and check out the call/equity range. Specifically note for comparison's sake the same 35% equity range. If I have 35% equity... I don't care if they call or not. If they call EVERY SINGLE TIME, I'm break even. And I make extra my money when they fold. Granted not many hands have 35% equity on the turn but thats good for illustrative purposes as it compares to the 70bb hand.



Boils down to the fact that theres a lot more places where villain can make you -EV in the 70bb example than the 50bb example. That's not to say its not profitable, if you feel you have significant folding equity, it might be. But it would have to be *significant*, and after he sees you do that massive overshove twice, that folding equity is going bye-bye. If you have the best hand, thats obviously good, but you're more likely to be behind as he tightens up and starts nutcamping.

In theory.