in relation to the graphs, i understand where you are coming from. and, i think thats fine, as you guys are talking 100NL at the lowest from what i gather.

if tried at 25NL, though, you would need to overbet MUCH larger, as these guys wouldnt know a fold button if it were in a bikini. you have to get their attention.

and you want them to call your overbets. you arent bluffing/semibluffing. you may be missing value, but thats another calculation, as this is off the top of my head, philosophically.

so, by the graph, if villain is calling my hammer only 10% of the time, what do i care? i will be way better than that. calling 10% of the time, not taking reads into account, would suggest him hitting a monster to call, right? so, if 90% of the time, they are folding, i could shove almost any turn with almost anything. even if he calls as high as 40% of the time, i only have to win 5%-10% of the time. i think i'll be ahead of that.

again, i am reserving the right to be completely wrong here. i am just trying to put a new spin on this topic while you guys shorting are working out the finer points of the strat.

thanks for humoring me. i'm only trying to think "outside the box."