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 Originally Posted by Deanglow
you're splitting at best, looks like a pretty simple fold
This doesnt necessarily follow. Im not sure how likely KQ is here as Ive said, but if we say he will play KQ like this 100% of the time and 100% of the time he will play QQ like this then we are still splitting or losing. Even given these conditions there are so many more combos of KQ that our equity isnt terrible. We actually have 40% against a range of QQ/KQ, and we're getting better than 2:1 since the pot is big (and no more money will go in after this decision). If we think he plays KQ like this 100% of the time then its a pretty clear call.
Actually, thinking about it, there is only one combo of QQ (0% equity), so we only need 2 combos of KQ (50% equity) to average 33% equity against the range. There are 4 total combos of KQ left in the deck so he only needs to play it like this half the time for us to call. That seems pretty reasonable to me.
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